3 players the Phillies should target to help with their plate discipline problem

The mission for Dave Dombrowski this off-season is clear: acquire plate discipline.

That’s easier said than done, as most players with great discipline are star players on good teams who aren’t being traded and won’t become free agents until they’re either old or busted. The need is especially acute in the outfield, one of the few areas of the Phillies roster that has an opening for an offensive difference-maker.

The easy solution would be to outbid everyone in the free agent market for Juan Soto. On board with that scenario.

Failing an acquisition of Soto or swapping out Alec Bohm for free agent Alex Bregman (which comes with it some of its own issues), I do have three preliminary suggestions for the front office.

The priority with these players is plate discipline. There aren’t that many players who see a lot of pitches (pitches per plate appearance), don’t strike out much, don’t chase balls out of the strike zone and are effective offensive players.

Here are three I think could fit the bill.

Jurickson Profar

Profar checks a lot of boxes.

First, he sees a lot of pitches, an average of 4.10 per plate appearance, 56th out of 287 players with at least 300 PAs last year, via Statcast. He hit .280 with a .380 on-base percentage and an OPS of .839, with 24 homers and 29 doubles. After a red-hot first two months (.922 OPS in his first 60 games), he cooled a bit over the final four months of the season (.793 OPS in his last 98 games), but only had one month in which he posted an OPS under .800 (.689 in August). He was pretty consistent.

More importantly, he only swung at 21.9% of pitches out of the strike zone, tied for 29th-lowest out of 286 players. He also tied for 28th (with Bryson Stott and Xavier Edwards) in whiff percentage (16.9%), striking out in just 15.1 % of PAs (T-36) and walking 11.4% of the time (T-32).

He can play left field, second and third base, providing positional flexibility. This was far and away the best season of his career, and it’s fair to question whether this was a one-hit wonder, but the 31-year-old will use it to score a solid three or four-year contract.

Tyler O’Neill

O’Neill saw 4.19 pitches per plate appearance last year, 24th-most in the Majors and walked in 11.2% of his PAs, tied for 37th, just below Profar. O’Neill also has more swing and miss in his game, with a 33.6% strikeout rate that was 8th-highest in baseball.

However, he doesn’t generally seem to strike out by chasing. Last season, O’Neill only swung at 26.2% of pitches out of the zone, just outside the top one-third percentile (101 out of 286 players). He swung and missed at 24.4% of pitches in the strike zone last year, 18th-most. Can Kevin Long work on that?

A right-handed hitter, O’Neill slugged 31 homers for Boston in just 113 games last season, good for an .847 OPS adding 18 doubles. Injuries have been a problem for the 29-year-old, but he was worth 2.7 WAR despite missing 49 games, and has generally been a productive hitter when in the lineup.

Lars Nootbaar

Nootbaar has not lived up to the expectations of top prospect status in the St. Louis organization, but one thing he has done through numerous injuries in his first four seasons is see a lot of pitches and put together solid at-bats. He ranked 58th in PPA (4.09) in ‘24, had the 8th-highest walk rate (12.8%), and his 19.5% strikeout rate was well below league average (102nd out of 287 players).

Most importantly, he had the lowest out of the zone swing percentage in baseball (16.9%). He simply did not swing at pitches out of the strike zone. He did miss 13.3% of pitches in the zone, but that was still just tied for 76th.

The counting numbers were not overly impressive, however, batting .244/.342/.417, with a .758 OPS just a bit below his career .774, and after playing 109 games last year still has never played 120 in a season. But while he’s left-handed, he actually hit southpaws better last season (.800) than righties (.743), and that OBP is actually pretty darn good.

Might the Cardinals be ready to move on from a 27-year-old former top prospect who has failed to live up to expectations? Nootbaar could be a perfect change-of-scenery candidate this off-season for Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies.