Low risk, High reward: Yankees potential heist in…

The Yankees may have found an ideal target for their offseason pitching needs in Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler. After watching him dominate in the World Series across two appearances, allowing just two hits over six innings while striking out seven, it’s clear Buehler still has the tools to be a difference-maker on the mound.

A Challenging Regular Season for Buehler

Buehler’s regular season told a different story, as he struggled mightily in his return from Tommy John surgery. Over 75.1 innings, he posted a 5.38 ERA, with just 7.65 strikeouts per nine innings, a 70.3% left-on-base rate, and a 45.5% ground ball rate. His performance was a far cry from his pre-injury dominance, resulting in a -0.2 WAR for the season.

However, context is key. Coming off a major surgery, it was clear Buehler needed time to regain his form. His metrics dipped across the board, but flashes of his old self began to re-emerge late in the year.

Flashes of Dominance Late in the Season

The Yankees know all too well what a healthy Walker Buehler can do. In 2021, he tossed a career-high 207.2 innings with a stellar 2.47 ERA, 9.19 strikeouts per nine innings, an 80.9% left-on-base rate, and a 44.7% ground ball rate. That season, he solidified himself as one of baseball’s most promising young starters.

Toward the end of the 2024 season, Buehler began to find his rhythm. Over his final three starts, he allowed just six earned runs in 16.1 innings, good for a 3.31 ERA. His strikeout numbers also trended upward during that stretch, giving hope that he’s close to returning to form.

The Yankees, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com, are intrigued by the possibility of buying low on a pitcher with such a high ceiling.

A Deeper Look at Buehler’s Pitching Arsenal

Buehler’s pitch mix includes a four-seam fastball, cutter, knuckle curve, and sinker. His fastball, historically one of his best weapons, was a liability in 2024. Thrown 29% of the time at an average velocity of 95 mph, it allowed a .342 batting average and a .696 slugging rate—staggering numbers compared to its effectiveness in 2021, when it held batters to a .201 average and .365 slugging rate.

One of the key differences has been a drop in spin rate. In 2021, Buehler’s fastball averaged 2472 RPMs, compared to just 2280 RPMs last season, resulting in less movement and effectiveness. If the Yankees can help him regain his fastball’s former glory, it could transform his overall performance. Adding a more effective slider to his repertoire could also elevate his game.

Why Buehler Makes Sense for the Yankees

Buehler’s ability to limit hard contact remains a strength, as evidenced by his 68th percentile ranking in barrel rate and 65th percentile in fastball velocity. Despite his struggles, the underlying talent is still there. The Yankees, with one of the best pitching development programs in the league, are well-equipped to help Buehler rediscover his dominant form.

A Cost-Effective Option

Buehler’s projected contract is three years, $54 million, or $18 million annually. This is a relative bargain compared to other top-tier free-agent pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell, who are expected to command $30 million or more per year. For context, it’s also less than what the Yankees are paying Marcus Stroman for the upcoming season.

If Buehler can take a significant step forward in 2025, the Yankees would secure a high-upside arm at a fraction of the cost of other premium options. At 30 years old, Buehler still has plenty of mileage left, and a return to his pre-injury form could make this one of the most valuable signings of the offseason.

A Calculated Gamble

While Buehler is not without risk, the potential reward makes him an enticing option. With Gerrit Cole anchoring the rotation and uncertainty surrounding other arms, adding a younger pitcher with high velocity and significant upside could be a game-changer for the Yankees. By buying low on Buehler, the team has an opportunity to bolster their rotation without breaking the bank—an important factor as they aim to address multiple needs this offseason.