The Packers’ Playoff Picture Comes into Focus: Packers Can Clinch Berth in Week 15, and It’s not Just About…

The Green Bay Packers don’t have much to play for beyond wildcard seeding at this point in the season. Even though there are four weeks left in the regular season, it would take a near miracle for the Packers to win their division or a complete implosion for Green Bay to miss out on the postseason altogether.

That’s just reality when you’re sitting at a 9-4 record but are two games behind second place in the NFC North.

According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, Green Bay has a less than 1 percent chance to win the NFC North even if they do finish their 2024 campaign with a 4-0 record. They have a mathematical chance, but virtually every result involving them, the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions would have to swing in the Packers’ favor from here on out. Mind you, the Vikings and Lions are a combined 23-4 this year, including a Minnesota loss to Detroit.

If the Packers go 0-4, they still have a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs this year, per the same simulator. Going 1-3 over the next four games puts them in the ballpark of making the postseason 80 percent of the time, and going .500 means they’re a virtual lock to punch in a playoff spot.

So what’s the most interesting playoff angle for the Packers going into Week 15? They can actually clinch on Sunday, despite ranking third in the NFC North.

Obviously, Green Bay is going to need to win its game against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football to get them to 10 wins. The help they need beyond their control, though, actually comes in the form of ties.

If the Atlanta Falcons lose or tie, the Falcons can finish no better than 9-7-1, which would be worse than the worst-case scenario for the Packers following a win in Seattle (10-7). That eliminates the Falcons jumping Green Bay in the wildcard race.

The third leg of this scenario is that the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams must tie in their matchup. A tie would mean that the 49ers would be in the same spot as the Falcons, with a best-case scenario of 9-7-1 on the season, while the Rams could do no better than 10-6-1. If the Rams do go 10-6-1, they’d have to beat both the Cardinals and Seahawks to end the year. If Seattle drops two games while Los Angeles wins out following a 49ers tie, the Seahawks would finish the season 10-7 — losing a head-to-head wildcard tie-breaker with the Packers — and the 10-6-1 Rams would win the NFC West.