Champions League 2024-25: How many points will Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool need to qualify for knockout stage?
An exciting era of European club football is on the horizon as 36 teams prepare to take part in the newly-expanded 2024-25 Champions League.
With group-stage fixtures now a thing of the past, UEFA’s new format will see a 36-team League Phase, with eight games scheduled for each team, and a subsequent playoff round take place before the usual knockout action unfolds.
Holders Real Madrid will endeavour to retain their European crown and win a record-extending 15th title, while clubs including English trio Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal will be bidding to end the campaign as kings of the continent.
Aston Villa are one of five Champions League debutants, while the likes of last year’s runners-up Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan will all be hoping to go deep into this season’s competition.
Here, Sports Mole takes a look at how many points should be enough to see teams progress through the League Phase of the Champions League this season.
The league phase of the 2024-25 Champions League will run from September to January, meaning there is a slight extension on the December end date of the previous group-stage format.
As previously mentioned, all 36 clubs will play eight times in the League Phase and the top eight teams will automatically advance to the last 16, while sides finishing between ninth and 24th must compete in a two-legged playoff round to join them. Any team that finishes 25th or lower will be eliminated with no access to the Europa League.
According to studies from Football Meets Data, who have carried out over 10,000 simulations, between 15 and 16 points will most likely be enough to see teams secure a top-eight finish and progress to the knockout rounds of the Champions League in its new format.
This would therefore mean that teams would be required to win at least five of their eight matches in the League Phase, or another combination of victories and draws to reach the 15 to 16-point marker.
English trio Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal can view this as a positive, as it eases the pressure on each club winning their so-called bigger matches against Europe’s elite.
For Man City, their toughest fixtures, on paper, are Inter Milan (H) – a repeat of the 2023 Champions League final – Paris Saint-Germain (A) and Juventus (A), while they also have somewhat favourable-looking contests against Slovan Bratislava (A), Sparta Prague (H), Sporting Lisbon (A), Feyenoord (H) and Club Brugge (H).
Winning the latter five fixtures would see Pep Guardiola‘s men rack up a total of 15 points and at least one more positive result against either Inter, PSG or Juventus (a win or draw) could therefore be enough to seal a top-eight finish. Two or even three defeats may not hinder their chances of reaching the knockout rounds.
The same applies for Mikel Arteta‘s Arsenal, who will test their mettle against Inter (A), PSG (H) and Europa League winners Atalanta BC (A) in arguably their three most difficult fixtures, while they are also scheduled to face Shakhtar Donetsk (H), Sporting (A), Monaco (H), Dinamo Zagreb (H) and Girona (A).
As for Liverpool, they have been given a tougher League-Phase draw as they are scheduled to face AC Milan (A), RB Leipzig (A), Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen (H) and Champions League holders Real Madrid (H), as well as Eredivisie champions PSV Eindhoven (A), Lille (H), Girona (A) and Bologna (H).
According to Opta, Arne Slot‘s side are predicted to collect a points total of 13 and have a 31.7% chance of finishing in the top eight to progress automatically to the last 16. That has taken into account Liverpool’s challenging fixture schedule and they will most likely need to get positives result against Real Madrid, Leverkusen, Milan and/or Leipzig if they are to outperform Opta’s prediction.
Meanwhile, the report from Football Meets Data finds that teams will likely need to claim nine points from eight matches if they wish to finish in the top 24 and secure at least a place in the playoff round, something which will provide teams like Aston Villa hope of making it through to the last 16.
Unai Emery‘s men were seeded in Pot 4 and will face Bayern Munich (H), Juventus, (H) and Leipzig (A) in arguably their three toughest fixtures, while they will also come up against Young Boys (A), Bologna (H), Club Brugge (A), Monaco (A) and Celtic (H).
