Breaking down the candidates for the NL Cy Young
After we find out the winner of the New York Yankees-Los Angeles Dodgers World Series, MLB’s award season begins.
Here’s a breakdown of candidates for the NL Cy Young, which will be awarded in November, from least to most likely to win. Per BetGM as of Wednesday, these are the top candidates,
RHP Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants
His season: Webb’s Fielding Independent Pitching, which measures what a pitcher’s ERA would be if not aided by great defense or hurt by poor defense, was 2.95. Only two pitchers in the majors had a lower FIP than Webb, and only Chris Sale had one lower among NL starters. Webb gets batters out in more of a finesse style. His strikeouts per nine innings was just 7.6, but his ERA was 3.47.
His outlook: Compared to some of his competition, Webb’s chances are slim. But at 27, Webb should be among the NL’s best pitchers for the next several years.
RHP Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates
His season: The Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani and Skenes were the hottest names in baseball by the All-Star break. Part of his appeal — his unique mustache, his time at the Air Force Academy, his relationship with LSU gymnast and social media megastar Livvy Dunne — has little to do with baseball.
But most of it has to do with what he can do on the mound. On a Pirates team that lost 10 more games than it won, Skenes went 11-3. As a rookie, Skenes would have led both leagues in ERA (1.96) and strikeouts per nine innings (11.5) had he met the minimum innings requirement of 162 (he fell short by 29 innings).
His outlook: Skenes only throwing 133 innings is probably what will cost him the Cy Young. Had he started his season on Opening Day, not on May 11, and put up the same numbers, he’d be the favorite. Nevertheless, the way this 22-year-old’s career is going, he should win multiple Cy Youngs.
RHP Zach Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies
His season: Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the past five years. This season, he went 16-7 (tied for second in MLB in wins) with a 2.57 ERA (third in MLB). In many years, this would be enough to win the Cy Young.
His outlook: Wheeler is still going for his first Cy Young, and at 34, who knows how many chances he’ll have left? Unfortunately for Wheeler and Phillies fans, odds are he’ll have to wait at least another season.
LHP Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves
His season: It’s not often the Cy Young and Comeback Player of the Year winners are the same person, but that’s likely to happen in the NL this season. Sale, 35, who had started a combined 31 games over the previous three seasons, not only regained the form that made him a seven-time All-Star before 2024, he had arguably the best season of his career. He led the NL in ERA (2.38), wins (18) and strikeouts (225) — a pitching “Triple Crown.” Before 2024, nobody had done this over a full season since 2011.
His outlook: It would be a big shock if he doesn’t win his first Cy Young.
