The Arenado Trap: Why Dodgers Must Avoid Tempting…

The Los Angeles Dodgers are entering the offseason with a clear need to solidify their infield, particularly at third base. With the uncertainty surrounding the long-term options at the hot corner, Nolan Arenado of the St. Louis Cardinals may seem like an ideal target.

A perennial All-Star with exceptional defensive skills and consistent offensive production, Arenado would theoretically fill the gap. However, trading for Arenado is a move the Dodgers should think twice about. Between his hefty contract, the cost in prospects, and alternative options on the roster and free agency, the Dodgers have other paths to explore that align better with their long-term goals.

Arenado has been one of the most consistent third basemen in baseball over the past decade. His 2024 season saw him post a .272 batting average with 16 home runs and 70 RBIs in 152 games. Defensively, Arenado remains elite, a generational talent at third base with 10 Gold Gloves to his name. However, while Arenado’s production is undeniable, his contract is a major obstacle. Signed through 2027, Arenado is owed more than $30 million annually, a financial commitment that could restrict the Dodgers’ flexibility.

The Dodgers operate with one of baseball’s largest payrolls but also manage their resources wisely to maintain a competitive balance. Taking on Arenado’s salary would not only limit their ability to address other areas, such as starting pitching. Still, it could also make it challenging to extend key players like Mookie Betts or young rising stars in the future.

Acquiring Arenado would come at a steep cost in terms of prospects. The Dodgers’ farm system is one of the best in baseball, headlined by players like Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, and Alex Freeland. Trading for Arenado would almost certainly require parting with top-tier prospects, potentially depleting the team’s depth and impacting their ability to sustain long-term success. The Dodgers have consistently built their roster around a mix of homegrown talent and strategic acquisitions, and giving up multiple prospects for Arenado may not align with that approach.

Viable options on the roster

Max Muncy remains a key piece of the Dodgers’ roster, providing power and versatility. While Muncy has spent time at third base, his defensive metrics suggest he may be better suited as a platoon player who can rotate between third, second, and designated hitter. Keeping Muncy in a flexible role ensures the Dodgers maximize his offensive production without being locked into suboptimal defensive alignments.

By avoiding a trade for Arenado, the Dodgers can preserve their payroll flexibility for future free-agent opportunities. The 2024-2025 free-agent class features several intriguing names, and maintaining financial room to pursue elite talent could be critical. Moreover, not trading for Arenado allows the Dodgers to retain their depth in the farm system, ensuring they have the assets to address needs as they arise.

Instead of pursuing Arenado, the Dodgers could look at other third base options that would cost less in terms of both money and prospects. One potential target is Alex Bregman, formerly of the Houston Astros. Bregman, known for his power and ability to get on base, slashed .260/.315/.453 in 2024 with 26 home runs and 75 RBIs. Bregman’s contract situation is more favorable, with fewer years remaining, which could make him a more attainable and flexible acquisition.

Another intriguing option is Yoán Moncada, formerly of the Chicago White Sox. While Moncada’s production has been inconsistent, he brings switch-hitting capability and defensive versatility to the table. Moncada could be a low-floor high-ceiling candidate who thrives with a change of scenery, and his more manageable salary would allow the Dodgers to retain their financial flexibility.

Additionally, the Dodgers have an in-house option in Alex Freeland, their #3 prospect. While primarily a shortstop, Freeland has the skill set to transition to third base. Promoting Freeland would be a cost-effective solution that aligns with the Dodgers’ long-term philosophy of developing homegrown talent. His promotion would also allow the team to allocate resources toward other needs, such as pitching depth or outfield reinforcements.

While Arenado is an exceptional player, trading for him may not be the best move for the Dodgers. His sizable contract, the high prospect cost, and the presence of alternative solutions make the deal less appealing. Options like Alex Bregman or Yoán Moncada provide a way to address third base without mortgaging the future, while in-house talent like Alex Freeland offers a long-term, cost-effective solution.

The Dodgers have built their success on strategic decision-making, balancing short-term competitiveness with long-term sustainability. Avoiding a trade for Arenado allows them to continue that approach, ensuring they remain contenders while preserving the flexibility to adapt to future challenges. For a franchise that prides itself on making smart moves, passing on Arenado is the right choice.