What if the Falcons win/lose against the Denver Broncos
The margin for error is getting a little bit tighter for the Atlanta Falcons, following an absolute fumble in last weekend’s matchup against the New Orleans Saints. They have built enough of a lead in the division to maintain a cushion, but that could start to change with another poor performance.
The Week 11 matchup against the Denver Broncos feels like a logistical nightmare. A game out west sandwiched in between a highly emotional game in New Orleans and a late bye week would feel ripe for a let down no matter what the Broncos looked like, and it’s even harder given the very solid football Denver has played this season. They are currently 5-5 and came one blocked kick away from ending the Chiefs’ undefeated season last week.
The week off is on the horizon, and a with it a chance to recalibrate and recharge. One more matchup against Sean Payton’s upstart bunch is what stands in the way. This is where Atlanta’s coaching staff has to really make their money.
Let’s take a look at the circumstances surrounding the Falcons if they beat the Broncos in Week 11, as well as looking at the scenario if they lose.
If the Falcons win
They will move into the bye week at 7-4 and in a really strong place as far as the division is concerned. Sitting at 4-6, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have this week off, but they play statistically the weakest schedule in the NFL the rest of the way. Atlanta’s cushion should be enough to where Tampa won’t make them feel uncomfortable so long as a collapse is avoided.
The Falcons will keep pace when it comes to the jostling for standings in the NFC playoff picture. They are currently in third place, only ahead of the NFC West leading Cardinals by way of conference record tiebreaker, but they would move to a half game ahead of Arizona on a bye week (and who could get tied by the 49ers). They would also move to within 1.5 games of the 2-seed Eagles, who triumphed over Washington on Thursday night.
According to the algorithm at playoffstatus.com, Atlanta currently sits in a strong spot with an 85% chance of making the playoffs as things stand today. A victory would increase those odds to 92%, with a 90% chance of winning the NFC South.
This would also mark the Falcons’ fourth consecutive victory head to head against the Broncos; a streak which started on Monday Night Football against Peyton Manning, in 2012.
If the Falcons lose
The NFC South could be up for grabs again rather quickly. Defeat would see Atlanta’s division lead over Tampa decrease to 1.5 games. If the Bucs beat the Giants next weekend, during the Falcons’ bye, it will be just a 1.0 game lead (albeit with the head to head tiebreaker). Given that Tampa Bay will likely be favored in six of their last seven games (including the Giants game), there will be a lot to play for.
The Falcons would be guaranteed to fall to the 4-seed in the NFC playoff picture, which is the lowest a division leader can be. The leader of the Arizona/San Francisco joust in the NFC West would be 0.5 games ahead of Atlanta. This would be the least ideal spot if the Falcons do win the division — it would mean a matchup against the best non-division winner, before possibly needing to travel to Detroit in the Divisional Round.
Presumably due to Atlanta’s own light schedule down the stretch (statistically the 10th-easiest rest of season, coming into this weekend), their playoff probability would still be at a healthy 80% according to playoffstatus.com.
Despite all of the good that we’ve seen this season, the Falcons would still be going into the bye week with a very middling 6-5 record, and on a two game losing streak. It would definitely be something to stew on with an extra week before play resumes for them.
