Arsenal Champions League first round predicted as Mikel Arteta shown nightmare scenario

Arsenal are set to get their Champions League campaign underway later this month. Mikel Arteta’s side head to last season’s Europa League winners Atalanta first up on September 19.

As part of the new Champions League format, Arsenal will play eight matches throughout the 36-team league phase, with four fixtures at home and four away. The aim is to finish in the top eight. Reach that point and there is a safe passage to the last 16. However, if the Gunners come between ninth and 24th in the league phase, they will face a two-legged play-off to get into the final bracket. After that, the quarter-final stage and beyond remain the same though only draws are needed following the initial fixture selections.

After the Champions League draw was confirmed last Thursday, Arsenal will take on Paris Saint-Germain, Shakhtar Donetsk, Monaco and Dinamo Zagreb at home, as well as facing away matches against Atalanta, Inter Milan, Sporting CP, Girona. Although there are some tough fixtures in there, it could have been much worse and Arsenal will no doubt fancy their chances of finishing in the top eight and qualifying for the last 16. As the Gunners will play two extra fixtures at this stage, the league phase will not finish until January.

Now, a supercomputer sourced by Grosvenor Sport has delivered its prediction for the league phase and where Arsenal will end up. The supercomputer – a probability model – estimates the outcome of each fixture based on a team’s current strength (based on factors such as league position and form) and betting market odds. The predictions are the result of a model simulating every game in the competition and predicting the exact score it thinks every game will be. It’s said that a level of ‘randomness’ has been added to each result.

Following the outcome of that, it has been predicted that the Gunners will finish tenth in the league phase, winning four, drawing three and losing one of their eight matches. It means Arsenal will face a two-legged play-off to get into the final bracket, set to take place after the final league phase matches at the start of 2025.

Real Madrid have been backed to win the 36-team league with eight wins from eight, with Inter coming in as second and Bayern Munich as third. Barcelona and Manchester City make up the top five. Atletico Madrid, Aston Villa and last season’s Europa League winners Atalanta are also backed to automatically qualify.

The supercomputer continues to say that they think Liverpool will knock Arsenal out in the quarter-final and City will win the Champions League, beating Real Madrid in the final at the end of the season.