A Change of Pace: Why Keeping Zach Hyman Off Conor McDavid’s Line Could Benefit the Oilers

Ever since Zach Hyman arrived in Edmonton, signing a seven-year contract in July 2021, he’s spent the overwhelming majority of his ice time alongside “Davo,” or Connor McDavid, as he is known in Ice Hockey circles.

In fact when it comes to five-on-five ice-time, Hyman has spent 2,563 of his 5,249 minutes in Edmonton on 97’s flank, or 48.8 percent, for those counting at home. Those results have been excellent for the Oilers, to say the least. They’ve outscored the opposition 183 to 107, and consistently dominated the pace of play with 58.6 percent of the shot attempt share, 60.5 percent of the scoring chance share and 61.6 percent of the expected goal share in Edmonton’s favour.

During those times when Hyman hasn’t been on the top line, things haven’t worked so well for the Oilers. The goal share dips from 63.1 percent to 49.7, with Edmonton being outscored 90-89, but what has stayed strong has been some of the underlying numbers: 55.2 percent of the shot attempt share, 54.9 percent of the scoring chance share, and 56.3 percent of the expected goal share.

Those numbers for virtually any player in the league would be considered top-notch, and indicate just how strong of a play driver Hyman has been during his time in Edmonton. So when Hyman found himself on a line alongside Adam Henrique and Jeff Skinner Tuesday night during the Oilers’ 4-1 New Year’s Eve win over the Utah Hockey Club, it shouldn’t come as a major surprise to see that line succeeding.

It was a sample of just four minutes and 16 seconds that these three were together, mind you, but they generated seven shot attempts to the Hockey Club’s two, four scoring chances to one, and .33 expected goals to .06, controlling 85.1 percent of that share.

But maybe there’s something more here.

Connor Brown had flown up the Oilers depth chart for last night’s game, getting a chance to spend 11:24 of his ice-time alongside McDavid, and they were dominant on the ice, with both getting assists on Edmonton’s second and third goals, scored by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Troy Stecher, respectively.

For one, Brown’s game has been nothing short of solid for the Oilers this season. He finally looks like the player they were hoping to get last year when they signed him off a major knee injury. He looks healthy, and he’s helped the Oilers bottom-six not just tread water this year, but outscore the opposition, too, to the tune of 16 for and 14 against ahead of last night’s game.

He’s not just making an impact defensively, helping the Oilers choke out the quality chances opposing teams are getting, but he’s making his mark offensively, too. He added two assists last night bringing his five-on-five point totals on the year to five goals and 16 points in 37 games. Looking at his production on a per hour rate compared to the other regulars in the lineup, his 0.69 goals per hour rank eighth, ahead of other top-six pieces in Vasily Podkolzin and Nugent-Hopkins, while his 2.21 points per hour rate ranks third, behind just McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

While he may not generate quality chances near the rate Hyman does, all signs seem to point towards him being able to handle minutes in the Oilers top-six, and alongside McDavid.

Dialing back the clock to when Brown signed with the team, there was a general thought that he could be a fit alongside McDavid. After all, the two had played together during their days with the Ontario Hockey League’s Eerie Otters, and now with a full calendar year-plus with Kris Knoblauch at the helm, he seems ready to take that jump.

Brown has found ways to seize opportunities in the past, and if he’s able to do so here with an extended look alongside McDavid, the positive ramifications could be significant for the rest of the roster.

The team as a whole still has significant issues scoring goals when McDavid and Draisaitl aren’t on the ice, and a third line of Jeff Skinner, Henrique and Hyman could help rectify that. You have Henrique up the middle, a two-way centre who is not far removed from being a top-six player in Anaheim who scored 40 goals and 80 points in his final 122 games with the Ducks, Jeff Skinner, who had 59 goals and 128 points in his final 153 games over two years in Buffalo alongside Hyman, who we all know can be a dominant force on the ice.

While it may not stick in the long run, now is the time to experiment with the Oilers sitting comfortably in the Pacific Division, allowing themselves to see more and more where the holes are in this roster ahead of the March 7th trade deadline.

Moreso, if this generates some offence and some confidence for Jeff Skinner, who has found himself in the doghouse buried down the lineup and in the press box against the Ducks last weekend, that could be a huge win for the team, too.