Ben Johnson’s Playoff Nightmare: Risky Decision Fails to Pay Off, Leaving Team’s Playoff Hopes in Tatters
With one game left to this NFL postseason, it’s apparent new Bears coach Ben Johnson has two things wrong.
He’ll argue the other way and actually did during his introductory press conference. The fact he’s so far off base is alarming, and it needs to be discussed.
The first is a bit comical. Johnson claimed he was happy to stay in the NFC North.
“I know this is the toughest division in football right now,” Johnson said. “There’s three teams that made the playoffs this year.”
Three did make it, but whether this made them the toughest division in football is definitely debatable.
The Bears won as many playoff games as those three teams and they didn’t even make the playoffs. So who’s actually tougher, the division with three in the playoffs or the one that had two teams make the NFC championship game with both playing for the Super Bowl, the NFC East?
This is picking at nit to a large extent. You play who you play and you beat the other teams to make the playoffs. There will be tough and weaker opponents on all schedules.
The other mistake Johnson made is more serious.
“Listen, it’s clear that modern football in the NFL is quarterback driven,” Johnson said. “That is no secret.”
If he had stopped here, no one could have doubted him.
“You can look at analytics right now, quarterback success is a higher predictor of winning and losing than turnover ratio, which has been for 20 plus years. OK?” he said. “That’s changed.”
Johnson is wrong. Quarterback play is a high predictor of success but turnovers are greater. These playoffs are a perfect example.
No.1: There have been 12 playoff games. Teams that lose the turnover battle in playoff games so far are 1-7 in the playoffs. The only winner with more turnovers than the loser was Kansas City in the AFC championship game. Feel free to insert your referee conspiracy or theory of referee incompetence here.
Four of the playoff games had no turnovers involved.
Here’s a better one.
In the postseason, losing teams committed 25 turnovers. Winning teams have committed one turnover.
If postseason is too small a sample size for you, then 12 of the 13 highest-ranked teams for turnover differential in 2024 made the playoffs. The one that didn’t is one Bears fans know well and that’s their team. Of the 16 worst teams—the bottom half of the league—for turnover differential, only one of those teams made the playoffs.
The Johnson apologists can always claim the quarterback play triggers the turnovers and determines it all. That’s true, but it’s still possible to be a better quarterback and still not succeed.
Of starting QBs in the top half of the league for touchdown passes, 11 of the 16 made the playoffs. But five did not.
