Braves Rotation Revival: Back-End Starters Shine in Preseason Action

The Atlanta Braves starting pitching staff performed remarkably well in 2024, especially considering they lost ace Spencer Strider to injury in mid-April. Several surprising contributions fueled an excellent season that saw Atlanta finish third in MLB in starting pitching ERA. However, the Braves must replace 59 starts from last year following the departures of veterans Charlie Morton and Max Fried.

The first three rotation spots were already locked down coming into spring 2025. These will be occupied by reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale, sophomore sensation Spencer Schwellenbach, and Reynaldo Lopez. Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson entered as the favorites to round out the staff because they are both out of minor league options as opposed to other contenders like Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver. And while there has been little doubt anyway, their performances this spring have only intensified their strangleholds on the last two spots, bringing Atlanta’s Opening Day starting rotation into crystal clear view.

Grant Holmes Looking Sharp So Far

Grant Holmes has done nothing but shove through three appearances this spring (10 innings). He has been Atlanta’s most impressive pitcher in Grapefruit League play, registering a 0.90 ERA and 0.80 WHIP with nine strikeouts thus far.

Holmes, 28, threw five innings of one-hit, shutout ball in his most recent start on Tuesday. The righty got into some trouble in the third, loading the bases on two walks and a hit-by-pitch, but got Colt Keith to ground out to end the threat. He allowed no more than one baserunner in each of the other four innings.

The former first round pick of the Dodgers is looking to build on a successful rookie season that came out of nowhere. After debuting on June 16th, Holmes quickly endeared himself to fans with one after another steady performance and a glorious, Kenny Powers-esque mane. His 3.56 ERA, 117 ERA+, and 3.20 FIP, supplemented by elite chase and walk rates, were quite impressive for such a late bloomer. The underlying metrics suggest the breakout was legit (3.46 xERA, .289 xWOBA/.287WOBA against). These stats and a strong start to Spring Training should give fans plenty of reason for excitement entering the season.

Is Ian Anderson Back?

While not quite as dominant as his voluminous counterpart, Ian Anderson has also been great through four starts (12 innings). The Braves third overall pick in 2016 has largely kept runs off the board with a 2.25 ERA so far. However, a potential cause for concern is his subpar strikeout to walk ratio (7/13) which could be a harbinger that he hasn’t fully fixed the control issues that plagued him in the past.

Anderson’s most recent start on Wednesday was a microcosm of his entire spring. He pitched four outstanding innings before losing his control in the fifth (albeit following a half hour in the dugout during a nine run Atlanta outburst). The righty allowed a double and back-to-back walks before being yanked, then Aaron Bummer allowed two of those runners to score. The final line was still solid, but Anderson showed his extreme inning-to-inning volatility that he must improve to stick in the big leagues. The Rexford, NY native also bent but didn’t break two starts ago, throwing 3 1/3 scoreless innings allowing one hit and four walks.

This year Anderson, 26, will attempt to prove that he is back to the elite form he showed early in his career. After an excellent 2020 and 2021, he fell off a cliff in 2022 before Tommy John surgery derailed the next two years. In addition to limiting walks, he will need to develop a second plus pitch to go with his nasty changeup. In his last full big league season, hitters registered a mere .281 WOBA against the change, but a .373 and .343 against his four seamer and curveball respectively.

The Last Word

The strong performances thus far from Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson will certainly ease the minds of Braves fans following an offseason with two major losses and no outside additions to the rotation. Brian Snitker is likely to announce them as the fourth and fifth starters with several more solid starts. However, one will be bumped when Spencer Strider makes his return from elbow surgery in late April or early May, essentially making the first few weeks of the season an extended audition for a year-long rotation spot. This will be one of the most intriguing storylines to follow in Braves country early in the 2025 season.