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For the 21st consecutive year, I’ve assembled a mock draft ahead of the NFL’s Annual Player Selection Meeting. For the first time, you can read it here on NFL.com.

My approach is research-driven: I blend insider reports, team needs, scheme fits, apparent organizational philosophies and odds to connect dots and predict what each club’s decision-makers might do when they’re on the clock.

My track record speaks for itself: over the last five years, I’ve ranked fifth in overall accuracy among 75 draft experts, including a second-place finish among 172 experts one year ago. In 2009, I had the most accurate mock on record. While connecting every dot in a first-round mock is impossible, matching players with teams ahead of draft night is very much within reach.

With exactly five weeks until the 2025 NFL Draft opens, here’s how I see the first-round puzzle playing out …

NOTE: Below each pick, I’ve included implied probabilities (as of March 20) for which position that team is most likely to draft first, based on odds pulled from DraftKings. While the favorite isn’t always correct, these odds often provide valuable clues as to each franchise’s potential direction.

Pick
1
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans
Cam Ward
Cam Ward
Miami · QB · Senior
Arm talent, poise and leadership are often traits associated with Ward — and they closely align with the type of franchise quarterback first-year general manager Mike Borgonzi (formerly of Kansas City) and second-year head coach Brian Callahan (formerly of Cincinnati) have each worked with in the past. Trading down could be tempting, but if the Titans think Ward could be their next franchise quarterback, it would likely take a substantial offer to lure them away from this pick. Once we know the next homes of the remaining unsigned veterans (notably, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson), we will know more about which teams might be desperate enough to make a move for Ward.

PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: QB (61%), DL (24%), CB (11%)

Pick
2
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns
Abdul Carter
Abdul Carter
Penn State · Edge · Junior
GM Andrew Berry just locked up Myles Garrett with a record-setting extension — and he doubles-down here with Carter, an explosive, high-upside edge rusher. This will be the Browns’ first first-round selection in four years, and given their lack of cap space, Berry and Co. can’t afford to take a player at a non-premium position with the second overall pick, which comes with an average salary of $9.8 million per season over the next four years. Cleveland seems likely to grab Carter or a quarterback, or trade down; Travis Hunter would be a luxury.

PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: QB (42%), DL (36%), CB (18%)

Pick
3
New York Giants
New York Giants
Shedeur Sanders
Shedeur Sanders
Colorado · QB · Senior
It’s no secret New York is in search of its next quarterback. DraftKings currently puts the Giants at a 66% implied probability to select a passer with their first pick, and they’ve been linked to Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers at different points this offseason. Even if the G-Men bring in a veteran like Rodgers, I still wouldn’t rule out a quarterback at No. 3 overall, especially if they feel Shedeur Sanders can be their long-term answer. Though he isn’t universally viewed as a top-five prospect, it only takes one team to believe in his upside. Should Sanders slip past New York, his draft stock could tumble, due to the limited number of QB-needy teams remaining.