Breaking: Uncertainties Clouds Futures of Phillies’ Once-Promising Pitching Trio

Two spring trainings ago, a lot of eyes were focused on a trio of Phillies pitching prospects. All right-handers, Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry sat atop Philadelphia’s farm system. They were all coming off inspiring 2022 campaigns in the minor leagues.

Painter and Abel were first-round selections by the Phillies — Painter in 2021 and Abel in 2020. Both were selected out of high school. McGarry was a fifth-round pick in 2021 out of the University of Virginia.

Pre-season prospect rankings for the 2023 season differed by outlet. But Painter was a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball. Abel ranked in the top 50 among multiple outlets’ rankings. McGarry wasn’t as highly ranked on many lists. But Baseball America liked McGarry. He was their 51st-best prospect heading into the year.

The rankings were well deserved. Painter dominated in his full first season of pro ball in 2022, pitching at three different levels. He reached Double-A Reading by late August and finished his year with a 1.56 ERA in 103 2/3 innings.

Abel’s 2022 wasn’t as dominant as Painter’s, but it was still good. He started 18 games in High-A and five in Double-A. The right-hander pitched 108 1/3 innings with a 3.90 ERA. As for McGarry, he made 17 starts, appearing in 27 total games two seasons ago. His command was an issue; McGarry walked 18.6% of the batters he faced. But he posted a 3.71 ERA in 87 1/3 innings.

The respective futures of Painter, Abel and McGarry seemed understandably bright when Phillies pitchers and catchers reported to Clearwater in February 2023. Now, there are legitimate questions about the three pitching prospects. Some are more pressing than others.

Painter was primed to pitch in the majors in 2023. But after one spring training start, he suffered an elbow injury. The then 19-year-old was shut down. He did not pitch again that season; Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2023. He is expected to pitch in the majors in 2025, but it’s unclear when he will make his debut, how many innings he’ll be able to throw and how effective he’ll be.

The youngest of the three, Painter has a clear path to contributing to the majors in 2025 and beyond.

As for Abel, he posted solid numbers again in 2023. But in 2024, he didn’t take a step forward in his development. Instead, he took steps back, finishing the year with a 6.46 ERA in 24 starts at Triple-A.

McGarry continued to struggle with command. His early minor-league success hasn’t continued as he’s been pushed upward in the Phillies’ farm system. In 2024, he was moved into a full-time reliever role, posting a 4.55 ERA. The right-hander has a 5.50 ERA in 47 appearances with a 20.5% walk rate over the last two seasons.

The question marks that surround these three young arms make sense. There’s no way of knowing how Painter will bounce back from major elbow surgery. Abel’s down year is a concern. McGarry hasn’t been effective with major command problems.

Painter is currently pitching in the Arizona Fall League. It’s a big step in his rehab. When speaking of the highly-touted right-hander, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently hinted at Painter seeing time in the majors in 2025.