Broncos Favoritism: A closer look at the…
Is the spread for the Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) vs. Denver Broncos (-1.5) justified compared to what we have seen from these two teams in 2024?
Having opened at -1.5 according to FanDuel, the spread has since shot to -2.5, then returned to its original -1.5.
Is it just because the game is at Mile High Stadium?
Denver Broncos Offensive Ranks
** (#) = Out of 32 NFL teams
303.7 YPG (24th)
19.7 PPG (22nd)
186.6 Passing YPG (27th)
117.1 Rushing YPG (20th)
= Average of these 4 categories? (23rd)
Atlanta Falcons Offensive Ranks
375.1 YPG (5th)
23.8 PPG (T-13th)
250.4 Passing YPG (5th)
124.7 Rushing YPG (12th)
= Average of these 4 categories? (9th)
Now flip the switch
Denver Broncos Defensive Ranks
295.7 YPG Allowed (5th)
192.2 Passing YPG Allowed (10th)
103.5 Rushing YPG Allowed (7th)
17.7 PPG Allowed (4th)
= Average of these 4 categories? (6th/7th)
Atlanta Falcons Defensive Ranks
352.8 YPG Allowed (23rd)
223.4 Passing YPG Allowed (23rd)
129.4 Rushing YPG Allowed (T-19th)
23.6 PPG Allowed (20th)
= Average of these 4 categories? (21st)
The most blatant difference of all?
Denver has 35 sacks (2nd)
Atlanta has 9 sacks (Last)
The 35 broken down:
OLB Nik Bonnito (7)
OLB Jonathan Cooper (6.5)
DE Zach Allen (5)
DE John Franklin-Myers (5)
LB Justin Strnad (3)
7 others combined for the remaining 8.5 sacks.
The 9 broken down:
DT Grady Jarrett (2.5)
LB Matthew Judon (1.5)
5 others have 1 sack a piece
If you told me the polar opposite pass rush difference was the tipping point to side with the Broncos as far as the spread, I would hit you with a “fair enough.”
But keep going….where else are the Broncos and Falcons similar or different?
Records @ Home?
Falcons 3-3
Wins- Saints, Bucs, Cowboys
Losses- Steelers, Chiefs, Seahawks
Broncos 2-2
Wins- Panthers, Raiders
Losses- Steelers, Chargers
Records on Road?
Falcons 3-1
Wins- Eagles, Bucs, Panthers
Losses- Saints
Broncos 3-3
Wins- Bucs, Jets, Saints
Losses- Seahawks, Ravens, Chiefs
If the NFL Draft were to be held tomorrow, the Broncos and their .503 Strength of Schedule would have the 19th overall pick. The Falcons and their .488 SOS would have the 21st pick. Considering the balanced differences in the caliber of offensive and defensive play between the two teams, outside of blatant sack production difference, it is uncanny how close these teams are heading into this game.
Pound for pound, this could be the Falcons’ most “even” matchup thus far in 2024 (it keeps going: DEN -1 TO margin (19th), ATL -2 TO margin (20th).
Considering all that and the fact that it is on the road, that spread looks to be right on the mark. However, the O/U of 43.5 looks optimistic. Denver will want to control the ball, and the Falcons have trouble getting teams off the field. Possessions and points will be at a premium in this one.
