Buehler’s Next Chapter: NL East Contender Hopes to…

The Braves are among the clubs showing early interest in free agent righty Walker Buehler, reports MLB Network’s Jon Morosi.

Buehler, 30, reached free agency for the first time this winter and, despite a strong finish to his postseason, is generally viewed as a rebound candidate on the heels of a dismal showing in 2024. This past season marked Buehler’s first year back from the second Tommy John surgery of his career, and some rust was quite clear.

After not pitching in 2023, Buehler tossed 75 1/3 innings in the big leagues but was tagged for a 5.38 ERA with a career-worst strikeout and walk rates of 18.6% and 8.1%, respectively. His four-seamer, which averaged 96.5 mph from 2017-20, clocked in at an average of 95 mph, per Statcast. He entered 2024 with an 11.6% swinging-strike rate but logged an 8.2% mark. In 2024, he ranked 190th out of the 204 pitchers who threw at least 70 innings.

The Padres rocked Buehler for six runs across five innings in his first postseason start, but he went out on a high note. In 10 subsequent innings, he was unscored upon, recording a 13-to-4 K/BB ratio. That includes a pair of scoreless starts (four and five innings apiece) and what will go down as a gutsy closing effort in the ninth inning of World Series Game 5 when Buehler finished off the Yankees to clinch L.A.’s championship just 48 hours after he’d started Game 3.

Atlanta’s need for rotation reinforcements is relatively clear. The Braves saw Max Fried and Charlie Morton become free agents when the season ended. Spencer Strider likely won’t be ready for Opening Day as he continues rehabbing from last year’s UCL surgery. The Braves’ rotation, as currently constructed, will be headlined by likely Cy Young winner Chris Sale, converted reliever Reynaldo Lopez and 2024 breakout rookie Spencer Schwellenbach. Options for the fourth and fifth spots include Griffin Canning (acquired for Jorge Soler), Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep and Bryce Elder.

Sale was dominant in a 2024 season that’s already netted him NL Comeback Player of the Year honors and is all but guaranteed to result in his first career Cy Young Award. But as good as he was in ’24, the lefty will pitch next year at age 36 and only pitched a total of 151 innings in the four years before this Braves renaissance. It can’t (or shouldn’t) be simply assumed that he’s once again good for 29 to 33 starts annually. Similarly, Lopez was excellent but missed time due to a forearm strain while shattering his recent workload standards. The Braves hope both will be as effective in 2025 as in 2024 — and as healthy or even healthier — but that’s far from a given.

Some form of rotation supplement is likely, and the Braves typically haven’t spent at the levels likely necessary to retain Fried — at least when it comes to free agents. Most of their long-term deals have focused on players who are either early in arbitration or have not yet reached arbitration. Those contracts all typically begin in a player’s mid- or late-20s. Fried will be 31 next year. A reunion seems unlikely, especially with the Braves likely to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season and Fried likely to command an annual value north of $25M. Atlanta would face a tax of at least 50% on Fried’s annual value in 2025.

Exactly what type of contract Buehler will command remains unclear. At one point, he was one of the game’s promising young aces, pitching 564 innings of 2.82 ERA ball with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate from 2018-21. That version of Buehler hasn’t been seen in three years, however. Some clubs may feel there’s enough upside to guarantee him multiple years right now. A two-year deal with an opt-out feels feasible, and maybe a club would put down a three-year offer with a more modest AAV and hope for a return to form.

It’s notable, though, that the deep-pocketed Dodgers are the team most familiar with Buehler, his medical history and what to expect from his performance moving forward — and they opted against extending a $21.05M qualifying offer to the right-hander. On the one hand, that’s good news for his market and gives any club signing him to a short-term deal the possibility of recouping draft pick compensation with a QO of their own if Buehler performs well. Conversely, the lack of a QO can be construed as a red flag.

If Buehler is amenable to a one-year deal, he fits the broad profile of what the Braves have targeted in free-agent starting pitchers. Last offseason’s three-year deal for Lopez was the first time under Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos that the team signed a starter to a multiyear deal — although even that can be viewed as an exception. The team expressed interest in trying to stretch Lopez out from the time of his signing, but there was always a possibility he’d return to a bullpen role if the experiment didn’t work. Anthopoulos has been far more willing to put down market-rate AAVs on relievers (in the $8-11M range) than on conventional starters. Anthopoulos also knows Buehler better than most free agents, given his former role as the vice president of baseball operations in the Dodgers’ front office — a role he held when Buehler was drafted and was on the rise through the Dodgers’ system.