Can Pérez Reclaim His Form! Baltimore Orioles Reliever Seeks to Shake Off Poor September in Crowded Bullpen

Cionel Pérez is about the enter his fourth season working out of the Orioles bullpen. That is an eternity for a notoriously volatile position group, but even more impressive for a pitcher that was originally a waiver claim and has been out of options for years now. Somehow, someway the fiery lefty has clung onto his role.

There was some doubt coming out of 2024 that Pérez would be back with the O’s in 2025. He had an affordable $2.2 million club option for the upcoming season that the team did end up picking up. If it had been declined, he would have instead needed to go through the arbitration process, his final year of eligibility. All of that was up in the air following a somewhat disappointing season for the reliever. It’s even more eye-raising looking back since the team decided against bringing back fellow relievers Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb, two players that were arguably better than Pérez a season ago.

An oblique injury cost Pérez a month at the beginning of 2024. He returned in late April and was able to handle a normal workload from there, but the results were spotty. Over 53.2 innings, the southpaw posted a 4.53 ERA with 7.71 K/9 and 4.70 BB/9. The ERA and walk numbers were the worst of his entire tenure with the Orioles.

A poor September sunk his overall stats. Across nine innings that month he allowed nine runs on 13 hits, five walks, and seven strikeouts. That ballooned his final ERA from 3.63 at the end of August to 4.53 at the conclusion of the regular season.

Prior to that, Pérez had largely been the pitcher that Orioles fans have come to expect. That is, someone that walks far too many hitters, doesn’t strikeout as many as his fastball velocity would indicate he should, and yet encourages ground balls and avoids hard contact like the plague. It all adds up to a productive arm to keep around if you believe that September was an aberration rather than the start of a trend.

Pérez is expected to be one of three left-handed pitchers working out of the Orioles bullpen to begin 2025. Barring injury, he should make the Opening Day roster and get a chance to show that he is still the reliable middle-inning arm he has been for much of his career.

But there is less incentive than ever for the Orioles to provide wiggle room to him throughout the season. He is set to hit free agency after the season regardless. Keegan Akin and Gregory Soto give them two other lefty options out of the bullpen, and Luis González is another on the 40-man roster. And that is before you consider any potential trades or waiver claims that could come.

The projections

• ZiPS: 54 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 7.83 K/9, 4.17 BB/9, 0.4 WAR
• Steamer: 56 IP, 3.77 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 8.37 K/9, 3.98 BB/9, 0.1 WAR

It’s interesting that the Steamer projection is more positive on some of Pérez’s rate stats, like strikeouts and walks per nine, and yet they have him higher on run-allowing stats and worth less overall. That seems to be the result of a projected downturn in batted ball luck, particularly home runs. Remarkably, Pérez did not serve up any home runs in 2024.

For the below cases for over/under, let’s look at the ZiPS WAR. WAR can be a finicky number, especially across stat sites. In 2024, FanGraphs pegged Pérez at worth 0.7 WAR, while Baseball Reference was down at -0.2 WAR. Considering that the Orioles picked up the pitcher’s option, you have to assume they align more with the FanGraphs evaluation.

The case for the over

The bar here is not incredibly high. Pérez has been worth 0.4 fWAR or better in each of his three seasons in Baltimore. These projections largely expect him to be that guy again in 2025.

The Orioles bullpen is deep enough that Brandon Hyde can deploy Pérez in scenarios that fit his strengths. That would be facing left-handed hitters and in situations where he doesn’t need a strikeout to get by. That allows him to put together his best possible statistics.

The case for the under

Non-elite relievers are tough to predict. Pérez comes with slightly more certainty due to his track record, but he is far from a guarantee. His propensity for a walk is another variable that puts him at high risk for the occasional stinker of an outing. It only takes a handful of those across a season to sink a reliever’s value.

Pérez has also dealt with injuries in each of the last two seasons. The oblique cost him a month in 2024, and forearm soreness resulted in a two-week absence in 2023. These were not major injuries, but middle relievers really need to rack up the innings to accumulate WAR. If he misses time in 2025, then he will need to be on his game when healthy to beat this mark.