Different Directions: Falcons High-octane Offense Faces…
The Dog & the Flea – The Atlanta Falcons (6-4) and Denver Broncos (5-5) at their core are a telling of two opposites in as evenly matched of an NFL matchup as the Week 11 slate offers (Broncos -2.5).
10-games deep into the 2024 regular season, adjustments can and will be made, though deficiencies brand the identity of what to expect offensively & defensively from these two teams.
Broncos Offense vs. Opponent DEF PPG
vs. Bottom 16 scoring defenses: 28.2 PPG
vs. Top 16 scoring defenses: 10.1 PPG
Falcons DEF ranks 23rd.
Falcons Offense vs. Opponent DEF PPG
vs. Top 16 scoring defenses: 16.3 PPG
vs. Bottom 16 scoring defenses: 27 PPG
Denver DEF ranks 4th.
Are you feeling a little better about Denver after reading that? Maybe, maybe not.
Denver Broncos Offensive Team Stats
** (#) = Out of 32 NFL teams
303.7 YPG (24th)
186.6 Passing YPG (27th)
117.1 Rushing YPG (20th)
Atlanta Falcons Offensive Team Stats
375.1 YPG (5th)
250.4 Passing YPG (5th)
124.7 Rushing YPG (12th)
Who wins the balance of scale? Does the Falcons defense step up? Will Denver prove too much to block for Atlanta’s offensive Line? How do Raheem Morris and Jimmy Lake get any sort of pressure on rookie QB Bo Nix? What changes schematically versus what remains of the status quo?
Defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake isn’t wrong: this Falcons defense cannot expect to start this slow down the stretch and keep winning late.
First-half Atlanta Falcons defense: 29th in success rate (53.2), 31st in EPA per 100 snaps (minus-12).
Second-half Atlanta Falcons defense: eighth in success rate (61.4), 10th in EPA per 100 snaps (6.5)
What’s the BIGGEST Difference between these Two Teams?
Denver has 35 sacks (2nd). Atlanta has 9 sacks (Last).
The 35 broken down:
OLB Nik Bonnito (7)
OLB Jonathan Cooper (6.5)
DE Zach Allen (5)
DE John Franklin-Myers (5)
LB Justin Strnad (3)
7 others combined for the remaining 8.5 sacks.
The 9 broken down:
DT Grady Jarrett (2.5)
LB Matthew Judon (1.5)
5 others have 1 sack a piece
First in pressures (153) and blitz rate (40.8%), Denver will undoubtedly be the best duel for Cousins’s mobility since T.J. Watt haunted all our dreams (nightmares) in Week 1.
Simple Scheme Differences?
Head coach Raheem Morris, loyal to his roots, instills the most Cover 3 Zone defense throughout the NFL. The theme of this? Prevent the big play from going over the top of your head. Rostering the NFL’s best safety (Jessie Bates III) and 4x All-Pro safety Justin Simmons makes sense.
Denver, on the other hand, runs man coverage at the third highest rate in the NFL. It is easier with Patrick Surtain II (the NFL’s best cornerback in my opinion) and a top-five pass rush. Big plays attacking the middle of the field between the hashes will have to be a chunk of Kirk Cousins and Zac Robinson’s focus, along with continued pre-snap motion.
Darnell Mooney could be the X-factor. Mooney ranks 11th in the NFL in yards per route run against man coverage (2.73). He is made for this matchup. His pre-snap and quick post-snap relief of Cousins is needed, and frankly, he should enter the game with WR1 anticipation.
Speaking of Surtain, he even referenced how critical Falcons’ skill health can be.
“The interesting part is their personnel never change,” said Surtain this week. “You see the same guys on the field every play. That’s pretty cool to see because sometimes offenses don’t present you the same personnel.”
Pound for pound, this could be the Falcons’ most “even” matchup thus far in 2024 (it keeps going: Denver -1 turnover margin (19th) to Atlanta at -2 (20th).
While you can usually count on a Kirk Cousins fumble sack at some point, it would be nice to be “due” for a week off from the turnover bug with a razor thin margin for error at Mile High.
