Guardians Path to Postseason: 5 Crucial Element

The Cleveland Guardians entered the 2024 season on a pretty disappointing note after finishing 76-86 in 2023, so it’s safe to say that expectations were low for them entering the season.

And when their ace Shane Bieber went down for the season after just two starts after requiring Tommy John surgery, it wouldn’t be shocking if Guardians fans lost a bit of optimism.

But optimism didn’t take long to return as the Guardians became one of MLB’s best teams in the first half of the 2024 season and went into the all-star break with the American League’s best record.

And they’d carry that momentum all the way through to a 92-win season and an ALCS appearance.

But despite their success this past season, there’s still some pretty significant holes in the roster and some important matters that need to be addressed if this team is to find themselves in a similar scenario of playing for October baseball by the end of the 2025 campaign.

Here are five things the Guardians can do to remain postseason contenders in 2025:

1. Invest in the Starting Rotation

It’s no secret that Guardians biggest area of weakness in 2024 was their starting rotation, especially after Bieber went on the shelf early, as their staff was statistically one of MLB’s worst this past year.

They ranked 27th in collective fWAR (6.0), 24th in ERA (4.40) and FIP (4.51), 23rd in WHIP (1.32) and 21st in AVG against (.248), according to FanGraphs.

Apart from losing Bieber, another big part of their poor showing this season can be attributed to a couple key arms for the future struggling mightily.

Triston McKenzie spent a lot of time in Triple-A Columbus this past season, after posting a 5.11 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 75.2 innings of work in the big leagues.

And Gavin Williams also found himself posting fairly inflated stats in 2024. In 76.0 innings of work across 16 major league starts this season, the 25-year-old righty put up a 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.

Now moving along, Tanner Bibee looked strong and projects to continue to look strong moving forward, but there are some question marks about some of the other guys who made positive contributions to the Guardians’ rotation in 2024.

Ben Lively and his solid 3.81 ERA in 2024 doesn’t project to be overly sustainable in the future, as he paired that ERA with a 48th percentile xERA of 4.02, according to Baseball Savant.

And he also ranks below the 20th percentile in several key advanced pitching metrics, and even below the 10th percentile in others.

Another arm that has some skepticism tied to it is that of Joey Cantillo.

Despite his 2.25 ERA in the month of September this season, Cantillo still posted a near 5.00 ERA (4.89) and a near 1.30 WHIP (1.29) in just 38.2 innings of work.

McKenzie and Williams aren’t guaranteed to have bounce back campaigns, and it may be harsh to say but regression is very much a possibility for both Lively and Cantillo.

And with their late season hero in Matthew Boyd now available on the open market, there becomes less true success alongside Bibee than there was last year.

However the Guardians have a variety of options available to them on the open market and could put some of that additional postseason revenue to good use by addressing this issue.

While Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, or Max Fried would be nice, and the Guardians have some competitive appeal for guys of that caliber, their 23rd overall team payroll in 2024, suggests that other more cost-friendly available arms outside the big three UFAs would be the more likely and realistic route to take.

Names like Luis Severino, Walker Buehler, Nathan Eovaldi or even bringing back Bieber could make a lot of sense here. And they’d all offer clear upgrades from what Cleveland has now but wouldn’t cost the ace-level money the top-three on the open market would stand to make.

Cleveland still managed to put up 92-wins with a poor starting rotation, so imagine what could be done if they were to invest in starting pitching this winter.

2. Re-work Gavin Williams’ Pitch Usage

Sticking with the starting rotation, we touched on Williams’ struggles in his 16 starts in 2024 after showing decent success in the same amount of outings during his rookie campaign in 2023.

And with all the struggles Cleveland has faced within their rotation of late, they need one of their former first round picks to be a lot better than what he was this past season.

From 2023 to 2024, his ERA rose by over a run-and-a-half, his WHIP rose by 0.11 and he went from a low .200s AVG against guy to a mid .200s one.

And a big indicator in Williams’ dip in form can be found in how opponents were seeing his pitch mix this season.

He’s primarily a fastball pitcher, as in 2023 he used his four seamer over 55% of the time and in 2024 he found himself throwing it at a rate over 51%.

And last season, Williams saw his primary offering get hit at a .286 clip, a 36-point hike from his rookie campaign.

And it didn’t stop there, as one of his key secondary options, his slider, was also seen better by his opponents this season compared to last. He used it at a 22.1% rate in 2023 and it saw an AVG against of .157, but in 2024 he used his slider nearly 10% less (11.3%) and it sport an AVG against over 100 points higher (.258).

Given these inflated totals on two key offerings for Williams, a change in usage seems like a wise decision. And luckily for him, he has some other offerings that have bore far better results than his four seamer and his slider have.

Williams’ most effective pitch is undoubtedly his curveball. In 2023 he threw it 17.0% of the time and hitters only managed to post a .174 average against it. In 2024, his curveball became his main secondary offering, after he cut back the use of his slider, and he held hitters just a .155 clip against it.

And this season, Williams utilized his strong velocity (79th percentile FB velo in 2023 and 88th percentile in 2024) and success on some of his pitches with movement and instituted a cutter to his arsenal, and it treated him well.

He threw it at a 12.0% rate and his opponents could only muster a .205 average against it, while they were caught whiffing at it over a third of the time (34.1%) and being put away by it at a rate of 28.8%.

Seeing this, it becomes clear to me that things need to shift in Williams’ pitch arsenal.

When he has better secondary offerings, including that new successful cutter, he should be substituting some of that four seam usage and throwing his cut-fastball a bit more. And he should also continue to raise the usage rate on his curveball considering it’s undeniably been his best pitch in his first two big league seasons.

At the end of the day, Williams and the Guardians coaching staff will need to find way to optimize his pitch mix, because despite his ineffectiveness there’s undoubtedly still a lot of promise in his game, and that can be a huge gain for the Guardians if they can tap into it again.

3. Find a New Offensive Middle Infield Contributor

Cleveland has a lot of areas covered well in their lineup. And while they have capable options in the middle infield with Andrés Giménez and Brayan Rocchio, from a hitting standpoint they could stand to bring in another bat to optimize the offense, as these two have been disappointing at the dish.

Giménez offers world class defense with three-straight gold gloves and a platinum glove to his name. But after an all-star season in 2022 that saw him hit .297 with an .837 OPS and a 141 wRC+, he’s failed to regain that type of form since.

In fact, Giménez went from a stellar hitter to a below average hitter after signing his seven-year, $106.5 million deal ahead of the 2023 season.

In 2023 his average dropped to .251, his OPS fell to .712, and he posted just a 96 wRC+, all stark differences to his breakout campaign a year prior.

And things got worse for the second baseman this past season after he hit just .252 with a .638 OPS and just an 83 wRC+.

Now moving to Rocchio, while he looked great in the postseason with a .944 OPS in the ALDS and an .871 OPS in the ALCS, his first full MLB regular season was a rough one at the plate to say the least.

In 442 plate appearances, he only just hit above the Mendoza Line with a .206 average. And his .614 OPS and 79 wRC+ looked just as lackluster.

While both of these guys have shown glimpses of their full potential and should have the opportunity to right their wrongs, adding another bat-first middle infield option for some offensive reassurance would be wise decision.

They don’t have to make a huge splash for a guy leading the charge for free agent infielders like Willy Adames. There are other more conservative options on the open market that would more than adequately and affordably fill this need.

A name that comes to mind is the versatile veteran infielder Jose Iglesias. In 291 plate appearances in 2024, the 34-year-old hit .337 with an .830 OPS and a 137 wRC+ and made appearances at second, third and short with the New York Mets.

He would immediately becomes a more reliable third option in the infield to the current options of Gabriel Arias (70 wRC+) and Daniel Schneemann (93 wRC+).

While Iglesias is just an example of what the Guardians should look for, the fact remains that the Guardians need to be better offensively in the middle infield to come closer to the output they get from other positions around the diamond, and overall make their lineup a more well-rounded offensive entity.

After all, the Guardians were a middle to below average team across the board offensively this season, ranking 22nd in AVG, 14th in runs scored, 18th in OBP, 16th in SLG and 17th in wRC+, and won their division. Imagine how much better their offense could be with a better infielder in the mix.

4. Add Another Outfielder to the Fold

With Steven Kwan and Lane Thomas slated to be everyday options in the outfield in 2025, the third outfield spot is somewhat of a question for 2025.

Will Brennan spent a lot of time out there in last season and was in and around an average bat with a 98 wRC+, and should be in the outfield mix again in 2025. But it’s important to remember he’s still only a year removed from being just an 80 wRC+ performer.

Jhonkensy Noel, who we’ll discuss more about momentarily (see point no. 5), will also surely be in the outfield fold in Cleveland for the upcoming season with his immense power and especially after his ALCS heroics this October. Noel however is still a developing hitter who struck out at a nearly 32% rate in 2024. He should also see some time at first and DH this upcoming season which would limit his time in the outfield.

And then there’s an array of utility options like the aforementioned bench duo of Arias and Schneemann, but they were both below average hitters in 2024 and hold a lot of their value in their positional versatility.

All of this leads me to the point that Cleveland could stand to add a more consistent outfield option to the mix next season.

And this addition could take many forms as there are a variety of outfield names available on the free agent market.

While they don’t necessarily have to get overly bullish with free agents here, if they were to spend the big bucks on a position player, the corner outfield would be the spot to do so. With Brennan not showing anything more than replacement-level offense so far in his career, and Noel being in the mix for time at DH as well as the odd game at first, there is definitely at-bats to be had in right field.

This could mean that both Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Santander are potential splash options the Guardians might look into to really bring a boost to their current middle-of-the-road offense.

But thinking more realistically, some of the free agent options below that second tier of Hernández and Santander might be a more viable option.

Tyler O’Neill comes to mind as name that could fit well into Cleveland’s lineup. Along with his 131 wRC+ in Boston this season, he’d bring immense power to an outfield that could stand to have a bit more pop. As a team, their outfield ranked just 21st in HR and 23rd in SLG.

And as a right-handed hitter, he could also continue to free up plate appearances for the young left-handed Brennan.

Another option could come internally in the form of Chase DeLauter, Just Baseball’s No. 20 overall prospect.

DeLauter is one of the more well rounded prospects in the game with EVs of 55 or greater across the board.

And he’s showed out at every stage in his minor league career, posting wRC+ totals no lower than 118 in each of his six stops since debuting in 2023.

And after hitting posting a .770 OPS in Double-A last season, the lion share of his 2024 minor league campaign, and then slashing .304/.407/.739 in brief 27 plate appearance stop in Triple-A last season, DeLauter is more than deserving of his 2025 ETA and could very well be in the mix for Cleveland in the very near future.

At then end of the day there’s a lot of routes the Guardians could take with their outfield in 2025, all of which stand to improve their offense moving forward.

5. Ensure Manzardo and Noel Get Consistent At-Bats

We’ve touched on how mediocre the Guardians offense was a whole in 2024. But lucky for them there are two guys who made abbreviated appearances in the big leagues in 2024 that could play a big role for them in 2025 and beyond, Jhonkensy Noel and Kyle Manzardo.

Cleveland is in need of a DH now more than ever before, since David Fry will be sidelined for six to eight months meaning Cleveland will be without their 129 wRC+ DH for likely a considerable chunk of the season.

And the right-handed Noel and the left-handed Manzardo could form quite the powerful duo in this spot, and ultimately get the required plate appearances that they deserve and desperately need for their development.

In nearly 200 plate appearances this past season (198), Noel posted a 118 wRC+ after posting a .774 OPS with 13 HR and 28 RBI.

And in 284 plate appearances in Triple-A Columbus this past season, Noel was excellent at the plate slashing .295/.359/.578 with a 139 wRC+.

One of the biggest issues for the big slugger when he made the jump to the show was his strikeout rate. He saw it rise over 10% from his Triple-A rate this season, as he struck out 31.8% of the time.

But when Noel connected, he mad the most of it, as he sported a well-above average 14.5% barrel rate.

Manzardo saw a little less time in the major leagues this season than Noel, and was also performed a little poorer than him as well.

In 156 MLB plate appearances, the lefty slugger hit .234 with a .703 OPS and a 98 wRC+.

But also like his teammate in Noel, Manzardo had much better success in Triple-A in 2024. In 364 plate appearances, Manzardo slashed .267/.398/.548 with a 143 wRC+.

He too fell victim to high strikeout rates as he adjusted to the big league game. His K-rate rose by nearly 8% while his walk rate fell by 11% when compared to his 2024 numbers in Columbus.

The only way these two promising young bats will have a shot to become the productive big league pieces they’re projected to be, is if they are given the chance to consistently hit against big league pitching.

And both Noel and Manzardo ended 2024 on high note, as they flashed their immense potential when the lights were shining brightest in October.

In limited at-bats, Noel hit for a .958 OPS in the ALCS. And in the same series Manzardo posted a 1.077 OPS which includes a huge early-inning homer in Game 3.

Given their opposite handedness at the dish, they could very well have Cleveland’s DH platoon locked up with Fry hitting the shelf. And with Noel’s ability to play both the corner outfield spot and at first base, along with Manzardo’s ability to hold his ground at first should Josh Naylor need a day off, the at bats seem as though they’ll be more plentiful for them in 2025.

Now is Not the Time for the Guardians to Sit Back

While the Guardians can take solace and feel good about capturing the 2024 AL Central Division title, there’s no time to dwell too long on it.

After all, that division will very likely be one of the best in all of baseball, with both the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers having just made the postseason, and the Minnesota Twins always seeming to have names that can keep them in the postseason hunt.

This Guardians team undeniably has some real strengths, but there’s also some legitimate holes that need to be addressed very soon if they want to remain competitive in 2025.

If they focus on the starting rotation, some of their biggest big league positional holes, and commit to really honing in on the development of some younger potential stars, then there’s no reason why this team couldn’t win 90+ games again in 2025.