Homegrown Talent: Internal Pitching Talent Could Shine for…
We all saw the FanGraphs piece released this past week breaking down the offseason power rankings ahead of the 2025 season, and a lot of questions were raised about why the Guardians, coming off a division title and ALCS appearance, were ranked 22nd. To me, the answer is very easy. It’s starting pitching. For starters, these projections are fueled by strictly Steamer projections. The article states that ZiPS projections will be added later in the offseason.
Secondly, and most importantly, it highlights the most glaring need that this team has had in an offseason in my lifetime: there is no starting pitching to be found on the major league level for the Guardians right now. The columns are broken down between projected batter WAR and projected pitcher WAR. Cleveland ranked 7th in projected batter WAR and had the fourth-best mark in the American League. However, on the pitching side of things, their projected WAR ranked 25th, better than only the Rockies, Athletics, Nationals, Angels, and White Sox. That’s not exactly the company you want to keep. The obvious reasons are this is a projection where Shane Bieber, Matthew Boyd, and Alex Cobb are free agents. There simply aren’t enough arms on this roster to make a viable projection. This also means there are massive holes to fill, and they can’t turn to free agency to fill them all.
When faced with a pitching problem, the Guardians have always been able to look inward. I’ve touched on where they need to address the pitching the heaviest, but outside of making real offers to bring back Bieber, Boyd, and/or Cobb, there’s a rest of rotation to fill out. It starts with Tanner Bibee and most likely Ben Lively, and despite a rocky 2024, Gavin Williams will be there as well. From there though, it’s bleak. Joey Cantillo is an option, and while he flashed on occasion in his rookie season, it was very up and down as he struggled throwing strikes.
From there, however, the other arms we saw last season don’t really feel feasible in making meaningful impacts on the 2025 team. Logan Allen’s stuff took a major step backward, and right-handed hitters had an OPS over .900 against him. In fact, of the 140 pitchers who threw at least 90 innings in 2024, Logan Allen’s 71 ERA+ was the fourth worst mark behind only Kenta Maeda, Kyle Hendricks, and Jordan Montgomery. Simply put, he isn’t a solution in the short or long term. Then there’s Triston McKenzie. Between battling through injury and confidence struggles to having a full mechanical breakdown, McKenzie, two years removed from a sub-3 ERA, walked more batters in his 75.2 innings than he did in 191.1 innings in 2022. He’s gone from being seen as a staple to the rotation of the future to being seen as a future non-tender.
So, who can help? Allen and McKenzie finished their seasons in Triple-A, but are there arms down there that are capable of making a difference for this team? I believe there is one.
