Jaguars’ Improved Pass Rush Could be Packers’ Downfall in…

Big advantage for Green Bay, right?

Not so fast. With an NFC North showdown against the powerhouse Detroit Lions looming, the Packers had better be on alert on Sunday.

The Jaguars have won two of their last three games, and three of their losses have come by five points or less. The Jaguars are no joke, and if the Packers are looking past them, the Jaguars will get the last laugh.

Here are three reasons why the Packers could be upset on Sunday.

Jaguars’ Run Game and Run Defense

On both sides of the ball, Jacksonville has the edge in the ground game.

Offensively, the Jaguars are fourth in the NFL with 5.12 yards per rushing attempt. They haven’t missed Travis Etienne one bit because Tank Bigsby has been exceptional. Among running backs, his 6.19 yards per carry trails only Baltimore’s Derrick Henry.

Bigsby is one of 42 running backs with at least 50 rushing attempts. According to Pro Football Focus, he is first with 4.58 yards after contact per carry. While he is 27th with 67 rushing attempts, he is fourth with 25 missed tackles. In the Jaguars’ two wins the past three weeks, he topped 100 rushing yards with two touchdowns in both games.

“I love the way he runs,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “His style of running, he’s very, very, very physical. He’s fast. He hits the hole, so we got to do a great job of not letting him get going. You’ve got to have multiple hats at the ball.

“Since he’s gone in there, he’s been really productive, obviously. You don’t average 6 yards a carry by not doing anything. I mean, he’s physical, he makes people miss, he’s got multiple just clips on tape that are pretty impressive.”

The Packers are a solid ninth with 4.34 yards allowed per carry. The Texans’ Joe Mixon had 115 rushing yards and two touchdowns last week, but Green Bay kept him under wraps during the second half.

“It’s all stuff that we can get corrected, honestly,” Packers defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “I think some guys made a lot of plays in the run game but not happy about the yardage and how much he averaged, for sure. We’ve definitely got to get that cleaned up. We have a better plan for it this week.”

Stopping the run is important for obvious reasons. Beyond that, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is much better on play-action passes than standard dropbacks. On play-action passes, he’s completed 69.6 percent of his passes and averaged 10.3 yards per attempt. On regular passes, it’s 59.4 percent and 6.1 yards per attempt.

Defensively, the Jaguars have been strong, as well, ranking seventh with 4.15 yards allowed per carry. It will be a strength-vs.-strength matchup with the Jaguars, bolstered by the return of stud linebacker Foye Oluokun, squaring off against the Josh Jacobs-led Packers run game, which is sixth with 4.98 yards per carry.

Jacksonville’s only real chance on defense is to stop Jacobs and get the Packers into second- and third-and-long, because its pass defense has been dissected all season.

Along those lines, first-and-10 will be critical because it will set the stage for everything else.

On first-and-10, Jacksonville’s offense is averaging 5.14 yards per running play while its defense is allowing just 3.11 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, Green Bay has run the ball a league-high 113 times on first-and-10 and been rewarded with 4.65 yards per carry. The defense, however, has allowed 5.02 yards per carry.

Can Anyone Stop Brian Thomas?

In this year’s draft, the Cardinals drafted Marvin Harrison, the Giants drafted Malik Nabers and the Bears drafted Rome Odunze in the top 10. The Jaguars selected Brian Thomas at No. 23.

Thomas has been superb. Among the rookie class, he is second with 30 receptions (Nabers has 39), first with 513 yards (Nabers has 427), second with 17.1 yards per catch (the Bills’ Keon Coleman averages 20.4), first with 2.60 yards per route (Nabers averages 2.25) and second with three touchdowns (Nabers has four), according to PFF.

At 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds, he is a big-time deep threat. On passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, he’s caught 6-of-11 for 283 yards and two touchdowns, according to PFF. No other rookie has more than three deep receptions, and he has more yards on deep passes than Harrison, Nabers and Odunze combined.

He caught a 58-yard bomb last week against New England despite excellent coverage by Patriots standout Christian Gonzalez.