Just in: Philadelphia Phillies Require This Strategic Shift to Overcome Current Struggles

Despite the regular season success, their October run would be shortlived, as they would quickly be dispatched by the New York Mets in four games, but it would not be because of the bye as some would have you to believe.

While all of the blame can not be put in one place, a lot of it can, and it can be laid at the feet of manager Rob Thomson.

The offense did their part to ensure the Phillies would not move on to the next round, with a chase rate rivaling Wile E. Coyote, but they did still score runs while their starting pitching counterparts held the Mets’ bats in check.

Thomson could not get out of his own way though, with yet another season full of questionable decisions, and it played a big part in the last two postseason exits for Philadelphia.

Before we get into the details and the situations, there have to be some ground rules to understand and not count this off as hindsight.

These decisions are not being judged by their results; they were deemed bad before the result came to pass based on the knowledge that was available at the time the decisions were made.

With that out of the way, let’s take a trip in the Wayback Machine with our dials set for October 19th, 2023.

October 19th, 2023, NLCS Game Three, Phillies Lead Arizona Diamondbacks 2-0 In Series

It’s the bottom of the ninth inning, with the Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks tied at one, while Philadelphia leads the series two games to none.

For the majority of the year, veteran Craig Kimbrel struggled in high-leverage situations, doing so even more in tie games, allowing hitters to bat .264/.350/.472 across 60 plate appearances in that scoring situation.

A small sample size, yes; but it did exist, and the statistics are there and available for anyone to view, even the multi-billion dollar baseball organizations.

Who does Thomson bring out of the bullpen in the bottom of the ninth inning with the score tied in a National League Championship game on the road?

Craig Kimbrel.

The veteran proceeded to walk two batters, and allow two base hits, subsequently allowing the winning run to cross the plate for the Diamondbacks, cutting the Phillies’ lead in the series to just one game with four left to play.

October 20th, 2023, NLCS Game Four, Phillies Lead Diamondbacks 2-1 In Series

It’s the bottom of the eighth inning, and this time Philadelphia leads 5-3, needing just six outs to clinch another win and move within one game of their second consecutive World Series appearance.

In the game the night before, Thomson turned to Kimbrel to try and keep the game tied and take it to extra innings, but he quickly gave up the winning run.

This time, the team is leading and all the veteran needs to do is record three outs without allowing a run to take the game to the ninth inning.

Just six batters into Kimbrel’s appearance, his night was done and Arizona held a 6-5 lead after a go-ahead two-run home run that would prove to be enough for the Diamondbacks to win the game.

It would not be the end of the series, as it would just tie it 2-2, but it did give the Diamondbacks new life, and crushed the spirit of the Phillies’ offense, eventually leading to Arizona advancing to the World Series where they were less than competitive.

October 5th, 2024, NLDS Game One

The Phillies waited a week to resume play after winning the National League East for the first time since 2011, and earning the second seed on the National League side of the playoff bracket.

While they were waiting, the team played an eight-inning sim game on Wednesday, October 2nd, giving their pitchers and batters live reps to keep them ready for the series through the long layover.

One pitcher who did not participate in the sim game was Jeff Hoffman, who was dealing with neck soreness at the time, which carried over into the playoff game.

Hoffman also struggled in his last appearance of the regular season, allowing four runs, all earned, on four hits including a home run.

In the first game of the National League Division Series against the New York Mets, Zack Wheeler, National League Cy Young contender, was as spectacular as ever, going seven innings without allowing a run on one hit and four walks while striking out nine.

Later in the game, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering would come in to pitch, indicating that they were available for the contest.

Despite this, Thomson would instead turn to Hoffman, who was dealing with neck soreness and had not pitched since September 28th, to open the eighth inning.

Hoffman obviously did not have it, allowing three runs to score and leaving with the bases loaded without recording an out.

October 9th, 2024, NLDS Game Four, Mets Lead Phillies 2-1 In Series

It’s now Game Four of the National League Division Series and the Phillies are down 2-1 to the Mets, needing to win or their season is over.

Philadelphia held a 1-0 lead in the game, in the fifth inning, but Ranger Suarez was beginning to struggle, so Thomson brought Hoffman in to try and hold the lead.

Just seven pitches later, Hoffman was out of the fifth inning without allowing a run, keeping the Phillies’ 1-0 lead intact.

In the top of the sixth inning, New York would make two pitching changes as Philadelphia’s offense was clogging the bases but would fail to score, though putting up an inning of over 20 minutes.

Hoffman had an adrenaline dump in the bottom of the fifth, then sat for well over 20 minutes through the top of the sixth.

Carlos Estevez, Kerkering, and Strahm would all be used late in the game, so, again, they were available to turn to with a clean inning to start the sixth.

Thomson sent Hoffman back out to the mound.

Hoffman clearly did not have it, with pitches bouncing to the plate and his command being nonexistent, eventually loading the bases, but left after recording only one out in the sixth.

October 9th, 2024, NLDS Game Four, Mets Lead Phillies 2-1 In Series

It’s the bottom of the sixth inning, the bases are loaded for New York, and Hoffman was just pulled after inexplicably starting the inning after an adrenaline dump in the fifth and a 20+ minute sit down in the dugout for the top of the sixth.

In last night’s game, 2024 MLB Trade Deadline acquisition Carlos Estevez was brought in to pitch the eighth inning of a game that was all but decided to get him some work.

In that inning, he allowed a walk, committed an error, and allowed an RBI double to Francisco Lindor, the best hitter on the Mets’ roster.

After Hoffman recorded the first out of the inning, Lindor was due up with the bases loaded.

Instead of turning to Kerkering or Strahm, neither of whom allowed an RBI double to Lindor in the previous game, Thomson turned to Estevez.

One swing of the bat later, and Philadelphia’s 1-0 lead turned into a 4-1 deficit as Lindor would hit a grand slam, which turned out to be enough to send the Mets to the National League Championship Series against the Dodgers, where they would lose in six games.

These are just four of many examples of Rob Thomson not being the right man for the job.

Many like to point out his record during his tenure with the Phillies and how he has the best win percentage of any manager in the history of the franchise, but with the roster that he has playing for him, if he did not have such a high win percentage, the team would be facing more issues than just the manager.

Time and time again Thomson has shown that he is incapable of making the right decision when the game is on the line, and it has inadvertently led to the Phillies being knocked out of one playoff race, while directly leading to it in another.

There are options available to replace Thomson, with the most impressive being Skip Schumaker, an analytically minded manager who could help lead this team that is heavily dependent on analytically driven baseball to the promised land.

The fact remains, however, that until Philadelphia makes a change at manager, they will not win a World Series.