Mets Masterstroke: Manaea Signing Secures Their Spot Atop of the League

With the news early Monday that the New York Mets had reportedly re-signed starting pitcher Sean Manaea to a three-year, $75 million deal, the arms race in the National League continues to heat up.

Over the weekend, the Philadelphia Phillies rounded out their strong rotation by making a trade with the Miami Marlins for Jesus Luzardo. Quality starting pitching is at an all-time premium in Major League Baseball, and teams like the Phillies and Mets are stocking up on pitchers who they believe will carry them to the World Series.

That is, of course, the same philosophy the Los Angeles Dodgers used last season on their way to a World Series title. The Dodgers have also showed no signs of slowing down their quest to have the top pitching staff in all of baseball by signing two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to a five-year, $182 million deal at the end of the November.

With all of that in mind, which team has the NL’s top rotation as it currently stands? We’ll use FanGraphs’ version of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to determine that, as well as the site’s Roster Resource page which predicts the Opening Day starting rotation.

As a note, according to FanGraphs, “WAR is defined as the number of wins a player adds to his team compared to a replacement level player.” You can find a much deeper dive into the various kinds of WAR (including FanGraphs’ version, which is shortened to fWAR) here.

Philadelphia Phillies — 15.9 fWAR

Zack Wheeler (4.6), Aaron Nola (3.2), Cristopher Sanchez (3.2), Ranger Suarez (2.9), Jesus Luzardo (2.0)

The Luzardo trade strengthened the back end of a Phillies rotation that FanGraphs considers to be the best in the National League. However, while the rotation may be set in Philadelphia, are there still moves coming with the lineup as trade rumors around Alec Bohm continue to swirl?

Los Angeles Dodgers — 15.0 fWAR

Tyler Glasnow (3.7), Blake Snell (3.6), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.1), Shohei Ohtani (2.8), Dustin May (1.8)

Sure, there are questions around just how big of an impact Ohtani will have after returning to the mound following Tommy John surgery, but MLB fans should have learned by now that betting against anything Ohtani-related is a fool’s enterprise.

Also, keep an eye on Glasgow’s return from an elbow injury that kept him out of the 2024 postseason. He’s had a history of arm issues (including Tommy John surgery), so will he stay healthy in 2025?

2025?

Atlanta Braves — 11.4 fWAR

Chris Sale (4.5), Reynaldo Lopez (2.7), Spencer Schwellenbach (2.7), Grant Holmes (0.8), Ian Anderson (0.7)

While this may be how the Atlanta rotation looks like right now, don’t be surprised if the Braves make a move to shore it up ahead of Opening Day. Also, don’t forget Spencer Strider (elbow surgery) will be rejoining the Braves later in the campaign. That will shift the look of this group dramatically.

Also, can Chris Sale repeat his 2024 dominance? That will help determine just how good this Atlanta rotation can be.

New York Mets — 9.8 fWAR

Kodai Senga (2.5), Sean Manaea (2.0), Clay Holmes (1.9), Frankie Montas (1.8), David Peterson (1.6)

The Mets are betting on healthy years from Senga and Montas (and it is a gamble) and that Clay Holmes’ transition back to being a starter will go smoothly. If it all works, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns will be hailed as a genius. If it doesn’t, the first year of the Juan Soto reign in Queens could be dicey.

However, there may also be more lying under the surface for the Mets as well.

The Mets’ rotation may not be loved by FanGraphs right now, but its depth could pay dividends later in the season.