NFC West Leaders: Cardinals Stat Reveals Recipe for…

How have the Arizona Cardinals gotten here? Here is the NFC West lead, and they hold it despite a 2-4 start that in mid-October put their season on pretty shaky ground.

Arizona (6-4) enters its bye week with a half-game lead in the division over the San Francisco 49ers.

In Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), the Cardinals are 12th overall: 11th in offense and 14th in defense.

That was expected out of an offense built around Kyler Murray and James Conner. For a defense that has one household name, Budda Baker, the success has been a much bigger surprise.

So again: How have they done this? The statistics can tell the story about the identity of a run-first, overachieving and gritty team.

The numbers don’t look as mind-boggling as Murray’s first foray into the MVP conversation back in 2021.

Nonetheless, the Cardinals quarterback with a 75.7 QBR for the season sits second to the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson (76.9) heading into the bye. The statistic takes into account his arm and his rushing ability.

That’s with Murray accounting for just 12 passing touchdowns and four more on the ground, whereas he’s bracketed by Jackson’s and Joe Burrow’s 24 passing touchdowns each.

Murray has protected the ball with just three interceptions. He’s taken just 15 sacks (25th most) and 12 knockdowns (31st most).

Crazily enough, Murray has actually not performed all that great in clean pockets, a sign he’s got room to improve!

There’s no denying Conner is the tone-setter and arguably the identity.

But Murray has taken the offense to another level, regardless if he’s doing superhuman things or just game-managing an offense that takes shape around a deadly rushing attack. More on the latter in a bit.

The defense is bolstered by the backend and a bend-don’t-break mentality

Arizona ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing a red zone touchdown on 48.6% of opponent opportunities.

The bend-don’t-break approach is impressive considering Arizona is 0.1% off having the worst third-down conversion rate for a defense. Teams are moving the ball pretty well in terms of yards per drive, but things get tough near the goal line.

The Cardinals blitz at the fourth-lowest rate and on top of that expectedly have been bitten without having a successful pass rush. No individual has more than defensive tackle Dante Stills’ 3.5 sacks, and injured edge rusher Dennis Gardeck is still tied for second with 3.0 even though he’s not played since Oct. 21.

Arizona does not blitz much, but defensive coordinator Nick Rallis has gotten wild with disguises about blitzes and dropping backers into coverage.

All in all, Arizona has been fine to sit back despite carrying the seventh-worst pressure percentage (19.1%). It’s not as bad when you see they are still tied for 14th in total sacks (24).

With all of that context, down-field coverage has cleared the bar of expectations to a high degree.

The backend, of course, starts and stops with Baker, who has torpedoed to 100 tackles in just 10 games.

But after him, Arizona’s defensive backs have mostly outplayed the expectations that were, for the most part, set by their draft slot and lack of experience in the NFL.

Pro Football Focus considers nickel Garrett Williams, a 2023 third-round pick who entered the league coming off an ACL injury, as a top-10 cornerback in the NFL by its metric.

Starling Thomas V, an undrafted player in the 2023 class, is quietly excelling. And rookie Max Melton has stepped in and held his own as well.