Orioles Secret Weapon: Why Baltimore’s Current Roster is Enough to Dominate the AL East
I know, I know, O’s fans are either sick of this topic or have exhausted themselves digging through every single mock trade. But, contrary to the majority, I think the Baltimore Orioles are actually in a great spot and should not use their prospects to swing a big trade.
Baltimore’s current roster is one of the best in all of baseball, with not only proven stars but high-end depth that is currently blocked without a clear path to the Opening Day roster. Although the idea of trading from a strength to help the current roster is fair, now is not the time.
The Orioles have had an active offseason, adding slugger Tyler O’Neill to replace Anthony Santander, as well as signing Gary Sánchez, Ramon Laureano, Dylan Carlson, and other depth pieces.
A lineup as strong as the O’s was never the question. However, a rotation that was middling only added 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano, leaving fans worried – but should they be?
The Orioles’ Rotation Is Better Than You Think
“Baltimore needs to trade for an ace!” *Insert 67 different Dylan Cease mock trades*
Let’s take a step back and first evaluate what the Orioles have. As it stands today, the current rotation, according to RosterResource, looks like this (with projections):
| Projections (ATC) | Innings | ERA | FIP |
| Zach Eflin | 171 | 3.85 | 3.83 |
| Grayson Rodriguez | 156 | 3.72 | 3.71 |
| Charlie Morton | 149 | 4.34 | 4.41 |
| Dean Kremer | 146 | 4.28 | 4.47 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | 127 | 4.57 | 4.81 |
No, no one will confuse this rotation with Seattle’s, but there is talent, as well as some more arms still working their way back. On February 26, you might not love what you see on paper, but do not forget what can change about the personnel or level of each pitcher throughout the season.
Take the first two names from the rotation. Eflin isn’t a sexy name or strikeout artist but has been extremely consistent throughout his career and pitched to a 2.60 ERA after joining Baltimore. Rodriguez, in many ways, is the opposite. A big-name prospect with strikeout stuff and not much of a track record, yet.
I see the ace of this staff coming not from an outside addition but instead via internal development with Grayson Rodriguez. The strides Rodriguez made last year are the foundation for his launch in 2025.
His whiff rate jumped to 30% (+4%), his walk rate improved, and he did a better job of limiting hard contact. His fastball was noticeably better, with even more room to grow. As he continues to tinker with his pitch mix and land on what works best for him I think we’ll start to see a true ace and leader of this staff emerge.
Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, and Tomoyuki Sugano are fine back-end options, though an ideal rotation would have two instead of three of them. Luckily, Trevor Rogers, Cade Povich, and even Brandon Young are all still options.
While I like Povich the most of the bunch, Baltimore really only needs one to click and outperform one of the back-end options while providing more upside. A reasonable expectation if you ask me.
Lastly, don’t forget about Kyle Bradish. I don’t think the average fan remembers just how good Bradish has been the past two seasons while healthy. There’s the kicker: His Tommy John surgery will hold him out for a good chunk of the season, but we could see him return later in the year.
Blocked Prospects Can Still Be a Part of the Orioles’ Future
The idea of moving Coby Mayo, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad or any other is a fun way to address a need today, but what about in the future?
Although we are not 100% sure how the new ownership will spend, we do know the Orioles have not been a top-of-league spending type team. If that trend continues, they’ll need more cheap talent sooner than later.
Catcher Adley Rutschman is in year one of arbitration this season with a price tag that is going to continue to climb at a fast pace. Gunnar Henderson is reaching arbitration next season and will be on a similar price path that is higher than most players.
Ryan Mountcastle has one more year of arbitration, while Zach Eflin, Ryan O’Hearn, and Cedric Mullins are all hitting the open market after this season.
Priority number one needs to be locking up Rutschman and Henderson, no matter the price. It is going to be steep, but you cannot watch that level of homegrown talent walk out the door. Signing those two players to deals sooner than later is in the O’s best interest and will eat away at their budget.
Due to this, players like Mullins and Eflin are likely walking, while Mountcastle or Trevor Rogers will lead to difficult decisions as their arbitration numbers climb. In order to balance the books and stay competitive, Baltimore will need their high-end, cheap talent to fill major holes.
Of course, Baltimore cannot keep every single prospect, and a majority of them will never pan out. I understand that, but I do not see it as a primary reason to just trade them away at this point in time.
Again, a midseason trade, after they have more information about the current team, injuries, and prospect progression, makes more sense. I think Baltimore is not in a position to lose enough ground prior to the deadline to make a panic move in spring training.
Final Thoughts
I understand where fans are coming from, I really do. After years of miserable baseball, the Orioles are finally showing signs of being a World Series contender, and some nerd is telling you why they shouldn’t improve immediately.
Remember, as quickly as this team has built to this point, it can be torn apart just as quickly. Patience pays off more times than not in life. If you are afraid the front office will not be aggressive in season, look no further than the past two deadlines at which Jack Flaherty and Zach Eflin were acquired.
If you were a Grayson Rodriguez believer over the past few years, then you know an ace is on this staff. Eflin is a solid two, and there’s enough talent for at least one more arm to rise to the top. Insert Bradish, and we are cooking. Or, if the plan goes haywire, make a trade then. No. Need. To. Panic.
