San Diego Slugging Questions: Can Padres Offense Deliver When it Matters Most?

During the current off-season, the Padres were unable to re-sign two prominent members of the 93-win 2024 team. Both left fielder Jurickson Profar and catcher Kyle Higashioka left the team in free agency. Replacing their offensive output for the upcoming season has been a topic of discussion since they both signed elsewhere.

The free agents signed by general manager A.J. Preller include a mix of both minor and major league veterans. With the first game of the spring training season just around the corner, now is a good time to examine if the Padres have done enough to make up for the loss of Profar and Higashioka.

Minor league free agents Forrest Wall, Oscar Gonzalez, and Yonathon Perlaza can be considered lottery tickets, added in an effort to catch lightning in a bottle or provide minor league depth. All three were invited to big league camp.

From February 8-11, the Padres signed Gavin Sheets, Jason Heyward, and Connor Joe to contracts. OF/1B Sheets played in 139 games last season with the Chicago White Sox, slashing .233/.303/.357 with 10 HR and 45 RBI. He signed a minor league deal.

Fifteen-year veteran Jason Heyward should be the starting left fielder versus right-handed pitchers. His defense is the best of the outfield options and he will be a stabilizing veteran presence next to CF Jackson Merrill. 1B/OF Connor Joe and Sheets can compete for platoon time opposite Heyward. They also both play first base.

Recently signed 1B/DH Yuli Gurriel is on a minor league contract. He spent most of last season with the Atlanta Braves Triple-A team with good production and played the last month of the season with the Royals. He last had a full, productive major league season in 2022 with the Astros and Marlins.

Joe, Gurriel, and Sheets are right-handed hitters with Sheets and Joe platoon options with Heyward. Gurriel could be a platoon option with Joe or Sheets at first base with Arraez. With 13 pitchers and 13 position players likely the mix for the 26-man roster, there are only three roster spots available to finish filling out the team.

Assuming Tyler Wade is a lock for a utility role, candidates Eguy Rosario, Tirso Ornelas, Joe, Gurriel, and Sheets can compete for those three spots. All but Gurriel can play the outfield. All but Ornelas and Rosario have experience at first base.

The real question remains, which combination best replaces the offensive output of Profar and Higashioka? Their combined 34 HR and 122 RBI is obviously not going to be equaled by any three of those players. Sheets is the best option for power, and his 10 HR and 45 RBI makes only a small dent.

The most likely scenario is that Heyward and Joe are the best primary platoon for left field with versatile Rosario or Sheets fighting for a spot. Gurriel, Joe, and Sheets can back up Arraez at first base, but the biggest question is which out of the group would be the best primary DH.

Whatever combination eventually wins out, or another option reveals itself, the challenge remains equaling last season’s offensive production.

The most obvious solution is that the team as a whole needs to be better offensively. That solution is actually the most likely one with bounce-back seasons expected from Luis Arraez, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. Of the three, Machado had the numbers closest to his norms, with the other two seriously underperforming what is reasonably expected from them.

Despite winning another batting title, Arraez fell far short of his best production. Tatis Jr. stated at Padres Fanfest that he now feels the best he has since going into the 2021 season, the season he hit 42 HR with 97 RBI.

Manny Machado began 2024 as the full-time DH with his surgically repaired elbow still being rehabbed and didn’t hit full stride until the last month of the season. He has also stated that he was never 100% last year.

Just as an example of what we can reasonably expect, the projections on Fangraphs show steady production or significant rebounds for all three. It also shows improvement to centerfielder Jackson Merrill’s totals as well.

Taken cumulatively, the 2024 Padres compared to a projected 2025 roster that includes a combination of Joe, Heyward, Elias Diaz, and Luis Campusano shows that the 2025 version has the potential for 15 more HR and 47 more RBI than the team that included Profar and Higashioka.

Those numbers do not include the production from the utility players but show that, with some luck and good seasons from the core players, the 2025 Padres are already good enough to equal the performance of the 2024 Padres.