Shane Bieber’s Contract Conundrum: What’s Next for the Guardians Ace?

For the first time in a long time, the Cleveland Guardians have a starting pitching dilemma. This problem will likely require the front office to look outside of the organization for answers via the free agency market or through a trade.

One free agent pitcher who Chris Antonetti said they’d “love” to have back is Shane Bieber, who spent the last six seasons in Cleveland and reportedly has mutual interest in returning to the Guardians.

However, Bieber is coming off Tommy John surgery and has a history of injuries over the last few seasons. Given the typical Tommy John rehab timeline, he likely won’t be ready to pitch until June or July of 2025, and there’s always the unknown of how a pitcher will respond after the surgery.

This could make the structure of a contract tricky for any front office to structure. If the Guardians and Bieber come to terms on a deal with him, what exactly could that idea look like?

There is a recent example of a contract that could be used as a blueprint for a deal between the Guardians and Bieber.

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff was a Cy Young finalist in 2021. He was on track for an even better season in 2023 before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury, which required surgery to heal.

The Brewers non-tendered Woodruff, allowing him to test free agency, but ended up re-signing him to a two-year contract with some unique stipulations.

The deal is reportedly worth $17.5 million, with $2.5 million coming in 2024 and $5 million in 2025. There is also a $20 million mutual option for 2026 and a $10 million buyout.

Woodruff did not throw a pitch last season as he rehabbed from the injury. But this deal essentially allows Woodruff to re-establish himself as an elite big-league pitcher. If he proves he can be the same pitcher as before the surgery, Woodruff can re-test free agency while he’s still in his prime. With the contract backloaded, including a mutual option, the Brewers have some cap flexibility, making it a low-risk, high-reward move for the organization.

The actual numbers for Bieber would likely differ, but the concept of the deal could be the same.

Cleveland could sign Bieber to a short-term deal, backload it, and include a mutual option with a hefty payday attached to it, which Bieber would get if he shows he can be the same pitcher through the first two starts of 2024.

This sort of contract would be a win-win for both sides. It gives Cleveland the starting pitching it desperately needs and allows Bieber to enter free agency in his prime if he does look like the Cy Young pitcher he once was.