The Noel Factor: How Jhonkensy Impacted the Guardians Season

Jhonkensy Noel arrived in 2024, like Christmas does, full of joy and wonderful memories. Will the Grinch of chase and contact rates steal our joy in 2025, or will Christmas come in a Big way again?

From Opening Day in Triple-A Columbus until May 5th, Jhonkensy Noel had an 80 wRC+ and a 26.3/4 K/BB%. I am sure I’m not the only Guardians fan who was wondering if Noel would be on the 40-man chopping block if things got tight. Even though he was only 22 years old in 2024, from Opening Day 2023 to that fifth of May this season, he had struggled immensely with only a 78 wRC+ overall. Then, Noel caught fire. From May 6th through June 23rd (when he was called up to Cleveland), Noel put up a 180 wRC+ with a 17.6/8.5 K/BB%, hitting a home run once every three games. Would be interesting to know if new Guardians’ hitting coach David Fink played any kind of significant role in Jhonk’s sudden ability to get to the next level.

As Zack Meisel of the Athletic has reported, it was, coincidentally, this moment that caused Matthew Boyd to become a Guardian. When he saw how Cleveland’s dugout celebrated this rookie, he wanted to be a part of that.

The man now affectionately known as Big Christmas became an instant fan favorite in his first month, putting up 160 wRC+ in his first 148 plate appearances from June 26th to August 31st, hitting a home run once every 3.5 games and flashing a 18.6% barrel rate and a 40.7% hard-hit rate.

However, Noel’s 31.8/6.8% K/BB% in his first 47 games gave mindful fans reason to pause, and it all came crashing down in September for the young phenom as he put up a wRC+ of 0 for the month striking out 33.3% of the time. His luck during this time wasn’t great (.182 BABIP), but he just seemed not to be able to adjust to the fact that pitchers had learned not to throw him any strikes. He swung outside the zone 44.6% of the time in his first season and it feels like 75% of that number was accumulated in September. He couldn’t lay off pitches just outside of the zone and Guardians’ were left to wonder if this was just a fever dream – a condensed re-enactment of Franmil Reyes’s career.

Noel continued to struggle in the playoffs, putting up only a 33 wRC+ overall. However, as the playoffs went on, he did begin to exercise some patience and was cheated out of a couple walks by generous umpire strike calls. And, then, with the Guardians’ season on the line, manager Stephen Vogt put Jhonkensy Noel in to face the Yankees’ best relief pitcher, Luke Weaver. With two outs and Lane Thomas on base with the Guardians down two runs, Weaver missed with a fastball outside and then made the mistake of throwing Noel a changeup in the zone.

What a memory! I will cherish that forever, Jhonk. Thank you for the present. I’ll also remember how fun it was to watch all your at-bats in person in game five as everyone around me stood up in anticipation of something amazing, oohing and ahing at the Paul Bunyan-like cuts you would take at every pitch, no matter the count or situation. We can all see your potential as you exercise your hitting philosophy of “just hit the ball hard.”

The question remains whether Noel is another Franmil Reyes, Oscar Gonzalez or even Estevan Florial – exciting exit velocities he can never consistently get to because of a lack of plate discipline and contact ability. Noel has age of debut on his side over Gonzalez or Florial, meaning there is still more hope for slight improvements in approach and mechanics. Despite both players being big right-handed hitting, right fielders who have unique nicknames, Gonzalez and Noel have some pretty significant hitting profile differences. Noel walks about 3% more often, strikes out about 10% more often, but the biggest difference is Gonazalez’s 28.8% Fly Ball rate and 40% Pull rate compared to Noel’s 48.7% Fly Ball rate and 53% Pull rate. If Noel makes contact, the ball is going to go a long way, out of the field of play, whereas a lot of Gonzalez’s contact, if it was hard, just went harmlessly on the ground where a skilled infielder would get an out.

There are some pretty significant similarities between surface numbers in Franmil Reyes and Jhonkensy Noel, both of whom debuted at 23. Reyes put up a 129 wRC+ and a 28.1/8.4% K/BB%, compared to Noel’s aforementioned 118 wRC+ and 31.8/6.6% K/BB%. The key difference, again, comes down to the player’s pulled fly-ball abilities. Reyes ran only a 33.9%/39% FB/Pull rate for his career. IF Noel can maintain something close to 50% Fly Ball and 50% Pull as he did in 2024, he’s going to be able to compensate for his swing and miss by hitting balls very, very far often enough to make it worth the strikeouts.

The question, then, is just if Big Christmas can lay off just enough pitches to earn himself just enough strikes to continue to do significant damage. A 44% out-of-zone swing rate probably isn’t going to be sustainable. For context, Reyes’s out-of-zone swing rate was only 28.5% for his career and it turned out not to be enough contact (due to his inability to consistently lift and pull). If Noel could get closer to 30-35%, I think the Guardians would have a starting right-fielder on their hands in this young man. As it is, I think an improvement to around 38-40% would be enough to make him a great short-side of the outfield platoon for whatever left-handed hitter the Guardians decide to pair with him in right field (Noel had great numbers against LHP in the minors and continued that by crushing them at a 165 wRC+ clip in the bigs). Noel is young enough that improvement is not a lost cause here, and he ran a 40% out-of-zone swing rate in Columbus. The Guardians shouldn’t plan their roster to make Noel the starter or the heir apparent in right-field… but he should get opportunities to prove that he, as Plan B or C, might become Plan A if he manages to just exercise even 5-7% more plate discipline.

Defensively, Noel was at 1 DRS and -3 OAA. The thing that I can say for him is that he clearly puts forth the effort. He is never going to be fleet of foot and he’s probably never going to have an amazing jump. But, I don’t feel terrified when balls go into right field like I did when Oscar Gonzalez or Franmil Reyes were playing there. Jhonk has a great arm, and I hope he spends some time this offseason running whatever drills JT Maguire gave him and continues improvement, because being an average to above average fielder in right (or left, as needed) would increase his value to this club greatly.