The Road to the Playoffs: Can Cardinals Make a Serious Run?

The Arizona Cardinals are exceeding expectations through 10 games. At 6-4, coming off four straight convincing wins, they hold a lead in the NFC West.

The offense is clicking, quarterback Kyler Murray is playing exceptional football, the defense looks like a different unit to the first six weeks, and plenty of young players are coming into their own. But anything can happen in football.

The Cardinals still have plenty of work to do, but they’re sitting in a position almost no one expected. New ceilings must be installed. For now, let’s take a look at some of the potential outcomes, and whether those narratives are fact or fiction:

Cardinals Make Playoffs: Fact

The Cardinals have seven very winnable games ahead of them. 7-0 is likely not on the table, but it’s quite realistic to see them go anywhere around 4-3 or 5-2. Finishing with 10 or 11 wins should be enough to make the playoffs, as long as they continue to take care of their divisional opponents.

The Seahawks and Rams are both weak, and the 49ers, while always a threat, aren’t as dominant as they have been. Going 3-1 or better in their divisional matchups would nearly guarantee a playoff spot, if not the division title.

Still, I think it’s more likely the Cardinals sneak into a Wild Card spot, especially with the unpredictable nature of divisional matchups. Most of the NFC teams outside the playoff bubble are quite weak, however three of the four teams closest to a playoff spot currently are the very same divisional opponents the Cardinals will face in LA, Seattle and San Francisco.

Therefore, those divisional games will be critical to their ultimate appearance in the postseason, but it’s a very reasonable expectation to see a 10-7 Cardinals team play in January. It’s hard to truly predict this, especially with Arizona’s history of struggling down the stretch, but this is a much different team than the Kliff Kingsbury years.

Tentatively, it’s realistic that the Cardinals can take care of business under the new regime, with some padding in their schedule in the form of the Panthers and Patriots.

Kyler Murray is a Legitimate MVP Candidate: Fact

Kyler Murray has been playing some of the best football we’ve seen from him in Arizona. Coming off an ACL tear and a rusty 2023 season, there were certainly some days where the Cardinals could have wanted more from their franchise quarterback in 2024.

But as has the rest of the squad, Murray has gotten hot over the past four games, playing well even when not called upon to deliver volume production. He’s been efficient, calm in the pocket, a leader, and both decisive and accurate for the most part.

Coupled with his top tier elusiveness and speed, and he’s produced 2,429 total yards and 16 total touchdowns with only three interceptions and four fumbles (two of which were charged to him on poor exchanges by his running back).

He’s completing nearly 70% of his passes coming off a 22-for-24 day, is averaging his most yards per attempt (7.5) since his excellent 2021 season, and remains among the NFL’s best in limiting turnover-worthy plays.

Projected out, Murray is on pace for 4,179 total yards, 27 total touchdowns and only five interceptions, and could realistically surpass those numbers by a large margin, considering how many low-volume days Murray put forward in the first half.

Despite the low raw production, Murray is second in QBR (75.7), and sixth in EPA (48.7). He’s coming off his sixth NFC Offensive Player of the Week Award for his efforts against New York, the most ever by a Cardinals quarterback.

The truth is, Murray will be a long shot to actually take home the award. Lamar Jackson and his 3,207 total yards and staggering 26 total touchdowns is the frontrunner and likely recipient. Barring some kind of injury or severe regression, it’s Jackson’s to lose, and Murray’s numbers probably won’t come close.

But the fact of the matter is that in intangible terms, Murray has been exceptionally valuable to the Cardinals, and is making both highlight-reel plays and the calm, mundane plays that keep Arizona’s engine running.

While he’s not a serious threat to win MVP as of now, he absolutely deserves to be in the conversation, and if he keeps up this pace, with Arizona continuing to win games, the 27-year-old signal-caller should receive votes.

Cardinals Are Ahead of Schedule: Fiction

Many, especially opposing fans or those in the national media, might be shocked at what the Cardinals are doing. Certainly, it’s been impressive, perhaps surprising to some degree.

But when examined, the Cardinals aren’t truly defying all odds, or playing too far beyond what their potential was ahead of the year. When the 2023 season ended, it felt like the most positive 4-13 season fans could have hoped for.

There was always hope that Arizona, in the second year of their rebuild, could put together plenty of competitive games, hang with some of the contenders, and finish somewhere around eight or nine wins.

But now, at 6-4 and in control of the division, many are claiming overperformance by this team. Yes, the defense has looked excellent, maybe it’s surprising just how dominant they’ve been in their four straight wins.

But the Cardinals are right where they should be in a weak NFC. Their division rivals are struggling, and they survived their schedule gauntlet with a .500 record. That might be a little better than expected, but not to the point of disbelief.

The defense has played beyond their projections, yes, but the offense has been inconsistent up until the past two games. To pull ahead against teams the caliber of the Bears and Jets should be the expectation, not a bonus.

With a very thin team, and the two blowouts at the hands of the Commanders and Packers, expectations might have been skewed by recency bias, but a team that hovers around or just above .500 was always the goal, and failure to reach that threshold would have been a disappointment, rather than the expectation.

The Cardinals have plenty of holes still to fill, especially on defense, and they’re not out of the woods. Winning the West or making a deep playoff run would certainly warrant “ahead of schedule” talks, but for now, the Cardinals are simply playing as well as was reasonable to expect, despite some of the uneducated 4-13 (or worse) predictions from the national media.

I’ve wrongly predicted plenty of losses through this team’s season thus far, but for now, I’m buying in that this is who this team is, and who they are built to be, rather than a flash of greatness in a fleeting patchwork project.