The Snell Deal: What You Need to Know About the…

Left-hander Blake Snell and the Dodgers reportedly agreed to a deal a week ago, and the club officially announced it over the weekend, but the finer details of the pact are still trickling out. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post (X link), the $182M guarantee breaks down as a $52M signing bonus followed by $26M salaries in each of the five years of the deal, though with $13.2M deferred annually without interest. There’s a $5M assignment bonus if Snell is traded. Additionally, there’s a $10M club option for 2030 under certain conditions: if Snell hasn’t been assigned to another club and has 90 or more consecutive days on the injured list due to a specific injury.

Many of these details came out in the initial reporting, including the guarantee, the signing bonus, and the assignment bonus, and there were significant deferrals. However, the deferrals are slightly higher than initially thought. The numbers reported last week were $13M in annual deferrals for a total of $65M, but we now know that it’s slightly higher than that, with the $13.2M annual figure getting the total number of deferrals to $66M. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the MLBPA calculates the net present value of the deal at $150.336M.v

The conditional option is the most significant new development Tuesday, as there was no prior reporting about Snell’s contract extending into the 2030 season in any way. Now it’s known that the Dodgers could potentially hold onto Snell for a sixth year, though only under certain circumstances.

Given the conditions, it seems it gives the Dodgers a bit of an insurance policy if Snell ends up with a significant injury throughout the deal. Presumably, the specific injury would involve something related to his pitching elbow, whether that’s Tommy John surgery or some internal brace alternative. Such surgeries have become increasingly common in baseball in recent decades but still require pitchers to spend upwards of a year recovering.

Assuming that is the specific injury covered in the contract, the Dodgers would have the choice of keeping Snell around for an extra year, compensating them in a way for the lost year. Snell will be 37 years old by the time 2030 rolls around, so it’s anyone’s guess what kind of form he will be in at that point, especially if there’s a notable injury. But $10M is already not a lot of money for a starting pitcher.

Last winter, veteran back-end guys like Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn got $13M and $11M guarantees on one-year deals. Wade Miley and Alex Wood were not far behind at $8.5M. Inflation generally pushes salaries up, so those deals might creep up between now and 2030.

It’s also possible Snell’s future talent level is above where those guys are now, given that he’s a two-time Cy Young winner and has had a more impressive peak than anyone in that group. Not all pitchers can maintain that kind of performance into their late 30s, but those who do are handsomely rewarded. Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Zack Wheeler were each recently able to secure salaries of $42M or higher for deals that covered their late 30s or early 40s, so Snell at $10M could be a massive bargain if he continues to pitch well throughout the deal.

The fact that the option is also conditional on Snell not being assigned to another club is also interesting, as it could reduce the chances of Snell being traded while hurt. Robbie Ray underwent Tommy John surgery while with the Mariners and found himself traded to the Giants before he recovered from that procedure. If Snell misses some time and unlocks that option for the Dodgers, they might be more inclined to keep him and take advantage of that option. This is moot for now, but it could become relevant depending on how things play out in the next five years.