Turning Point in LA: The 10 Most Critical Game-Changing Hits of the Dodgers 2024 Season

In a season of big plays for the World Series champions, it’s actually possible to choose the 10 biggest.

Baseball Reference uses a statistic called Win Probability Added (WPA) to measure the change in a team’s win expectancy following a plate appearance or base action.

And surprise — there was one play that had a higher WPA than Freddie Freeman’s walk-off grand slam in Game 1 of the World Series. Of course, Freeman’s history-making homer is on the list. So are all these …

These are the top 10 plays with highest WPA of 2024:

1) June 18 vs. Rockies: 9th inning, 2 outs — Teoscar Hernandez’s three-run homer

It was one of the greatest Dodger comebacks ever. The Dodgers started the ninth down 9–4 against the Rockies and finished it off with the biggest clutch hit of the season by Teoscar Hernández per Win Probability Added.

A grand slam by Jason Heyward inched the Dodgers within a run of tying the score, keeping the door open for the improbable. Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman got on base via a single and intentional walk. Then, with two outs, Hernández was the next man up.

He checked his swing on a 1–2 fastball that would’ve ended the Dodgers’ comeback hopes, but he held back to see one more from reliever Victor Vodnik. The next fastball crossed the middle of the strike zone and Hernández didn’t miss it. He hit it to right center field for a three-run homer to put the Dodgers ahead. The Dodgers beat the Rockies 11–9.

Win Probability Added: 0.759

2) Oct. 25 vs. Yankees (World Series Game 1): 10th inning, 2 outs — Freddie Freeman’s walk-off grand slam

The Dodgers trailed the Yankees by one run entering the bottom of the 10th and loaded the bases with a walk, single and intentional walk, setting the stage for Freeman. It was the first walk-off grand slam in World Series history as the Dodgers beat the Yankees, 6–3.

Win Probability Added: 0.733

3) March 31 vs. Cardinals: 8th inning, 1 out — Max Muncy’s two-run home run

Trailing the Cardinals by one run, Max Muncy’s first long ball of the season — a two-run homer — propelled the Dodgers to a 5–4 win.

Win Probability Added: 0.497

4) March 30 vs. Cardinals: 9th inning, 2 outs — Max Muncy’s single

And then there was the night before.

Although it ended in a loss, the Dodgers showed fight earlier in the series against the Cardinals. And it was Muncy again with the key hit. He punched a single to center field to tie the game 5–5 after Mookie Betts’ homer put them within striking distance. The Dodgers eventually fell to the Cardinals 6–5.

Win Probability Added: 0.467

5) July 2 vs. Arizona: 9th inning, 2 outs — Freddie Freeman’s double

The Dodgers were looking for two-out magic when Freeman stepped up to the plate with a runner on second in the bottom of the ninth. Down to his last strike, Freeman drilled a line drive to right-center field to tie the game 5–5, setting up Teoscar Hernández’s walk-off single.

Win Probability Added: 0.466

6) Sept. 22 vs. Rockies: 9th inning, 0 outs — Shohei Ohtani’s home run

The Dodgers inched their way back with a pair of home runs in the ninth, but it was Ohtani’s long ball that set up the comeback win. Ohtani tied the score 5–5 after he crushed his 53rd homer of the year to center field, and Mookie Betts followed in the next at-bat with a walk-off home run. The Dodgers won 6–5.

Win Probability Added: 0.440

7) July 20 vs. Boston: 9th inning, 0 outs — Kiké Hernández’s home run

Kiké Hernández knew it immediately when the ball left his bat. He connected on a 2–2 cutter from Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen and evened the score at 4–4. The Dodgers eventually won 7–6 in the 11th inning. Hernández scored the winning run.

Win Probability Added: 0.439

8) July 19 vs. Boston: 8th inning, 1 out — Freddie Freeman’s grand slam

The Red Sox held a one-run lead heading into the eighth inning. Boston chose to walk Will Smith to load the bases and set up the lefty-lefty matchup of Brennan Bernardino vs. Freeman. Freeman made them pay with a grand slam. The Dodgers won 4–1.

Win Probability Added: 0.417

9) Aug. 31 vs. Arizona: 9th inning, 2 outs — Tommy Edman’s single

The Dodgers needed to create distance in the division between themselves and the second-place Diamondbacks — who were five games back of first. They traded leads until Tommy Edman provided a two-run single that quieted Arizona from another comeback. The Dodgers beat the Diamondbacks 8–6.

Win Probability Added: 0.406

10) June 7 vs. Yankees: 11th inning, 1 out — Teoscar Hernández’s double

A scoreless bout between the eventual World Series teams carried into the 11th inning until Teoscar Hernández’s two-run double against Dennis Santana. He lined a slider to the gap in left-center field, giving Ohtani and Freeman distance to score on the hit. The Dodgers beat the Yankees, 2–0.

Win Probability Added: 0.404