Tying Up Loose Ends: Oilers and Emberson Closing in on Multi-Year Contract Extension

Earlier this week, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said on the 32 Thoughts podcast that the Oilers will be looking to begin contract extension talks with defenseman Ty Emberson, who is eligible to sign a new deal once the calendar turns to 2025.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. While Emberson was far from a household name when the Oilers acquired him last August, it was clear that he was more than just a throw-in to a deal whose main purpose was to dump Cody Ceci’s $3.25m cap hit.

Emberson was brought in just days before the Oilers decided not to match the offer sheet that was sent to Philip Broberg and once the decision was made to let Broberg leave to St. Louis, Emberson was suddenly slotted in the Oilers’ blue line.

Despite being 24 years old, Emberson had only appeared in 30 career NHL games before coming to Edmonton but in that short time, he had shown that he was a more than capable NHL defenseman.

In 2023-24, Emberson played 498 minutes 5v5 minutes with the San Jose Sharks and even though the Sharks were an absolute dumpster fire of a team, he still found a way to post some pretty respectable advanced numbers.

From speaking with people in San Jose who watched the team, Emberson learned how to defend at the NHL level very quickly and rarely made the kind of ‘Grade A’ mistakes that young defensemen do.

Part of that could be because he spent two full seasons in the AHL, one of which was under Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch when he was with the Hartford Wolfpack. He had a pretty long development path but sometimes that’s for the best and I think that’s the case with Emberson.

Oilers fans are well versed in the dangers of rushing young defensemen to the NHL.

Because he was being pencilled into a starting role on this team from day one of training camp, there was a decent amount of hype behind Emberson to start the season and while he struggled a bit in his first month, he quickly turned a corner in November.

He has been getting outscored at 5v5 but when you consider that he plays a mainly defensive role and actually starts fewer shifts in the offensive zone than any other Oilers defenseman, the numbers are pretty respectable.

As the calendar flips to 2025, he’s sitting at 65 career NHL games and based on the steps forward that I’ve seen from his game over the last month, I think it would be a smart bet on the Oilers part to lock Emberson up now and hope that he continues a similar development path.

Again, for a lot of young defensemen, learning the defensive side of the game at the NHL level is the most difficult thing to do and Emberson has already shown that he has a good grasp of things.

He doesn’t make the same number of panic-induced mistakes that other players with under 100 games of NHL experience make, he skates well and can make a pretty solid first pass. Those are all things that the Oilers should value as they look to build a blueline that can contend for a Stanley Cup.

The other thing that this Oilers front office should really be focusing on is trying to load this roster up with value contracts.

Look at Vasiliy Podkolzin. He’s come in and given the Oilers top-six minutes for almost half a season and he has one more year with a cap hit of just $1m. When you have as many high-end players as the Oilers do and dead cap hit on the books, finding ways to sprinkle in good players on dirt-cheap deals is imperative.

They have a chance to do that here with Emberson and while it might seem a bit risky to give a player term when he has fewer than 100 games of NHL experience, I think this is a risk the Oilers should be willing to take.

There is also a risk in waiting.

What if Emberson goes out and has a great playoff run where he begins to look more and more like a player who can handle heavy top-four minutes against strong competition? Well, then an extension just got a lot more expensive.

The Oilers just saw that exact scenario play out with Philip Broberg.

Of course, the player needs to agree to the contract as well and I’m sure Emberson knows how his value could increase with a strong playoff run, so the Oilers need to make any contract offer enticing enough for Emberson and his camp to want to lock in now versus at the end of the season.

Considering the fact that he has not been in the league for very long and doesn’t come with the pedigree of a player who was selected high in the NHL draft, it shouldn’t take a lot of money to get Emberson locked up.

My initial thought: a three-year deal worth $1.6m per season. I somewhat used Vincent Desharnais as an example of a third-pairing defenseman who doesn’t bring a lot of offence.

Desharnais was hitting the UFA market for the first time in his career and got a two-year deal from the Vancouver Canucks worth $2m per season. He had more NHL experience than Emberson does at this point and he had a few playoff runs under his belt. He was also a few years older, which helped his case.

While I do believe Emberson is a much better player, I think going with more term and bringing the cap hit down is a fair way to work off this comparison when you consider his age and experience level.

This hypothetical deal gives Emberson $4.8m in guaranteed money before he even hits the 100-game mark of his NHL and would allow him to become a UFA at just 28 years old. If he performs well and continues to establish himself as a strong NHL defender, he’ll get a good payday before the age of the 30.

For the Oilers, I like this number for a few reasons. If he hits his potential and becomes a player who can handle top-four minutes, then the Oilers will be getting an absolute bargain for two or three seasons.

If it doesn’t work and he simply is what he is, then paying a third-pairing defenseman $1.6m is not egregious and even if things got so bad that they needed to send him in the minors, they could bury all but $500k of his cap hit.